干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Combined probabilistic forecasting method for photovoltaic power using an improved Markov chain

Arid

DOI	10.1049/iet-gtd.2018.6860
	Combined probabilistic forecasting method for photovoltaic power using an improved Markov chain
	Chen, Bo 1,2; Li, Jinghua 1,2
通讯作者	Li, Jinghua
来源期刊	IET GENERATION TRANSMISSION & DISTRIBUTION
ISSN	1751-8687
EISSN	1751-8695
出版年	2019
卷号	13 期号:19 页码:4364-4373
英文摘要	A novel combined probabilistic forecasting method based on an improved Markov chain for photovoltaics (PVs) to enhance the accuracy of probabilistic PV power forecasting is presented. First, a Markov chain (MC) forecasting structure combining precise factors is proposed that considers more influence factors beyond the statistical information of historical data as compared with conventional MCs. Rough set theory is then used to refine the major factors to quantify the influence of those factors. Furthermore, a k-nearest neighbours algorithm is used to select similar samples for building an accurate forecasting model. Based on similar samples, the changing PV trends are more obvious than when using whole historical samples, thus further improving forecasting accuracy. Finally, the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method are verified by comparing results from simulations with the results from competing methods for two cases using datasets from DESERT KNOWLEDGE AUSTRALIA Solar Centre and GEFCom2014. The simulation results show that the proposed method can provide probabilistic forecasting results with better performance, also, the proposed method can be adapted to various forecasting scenarios.
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	Peoples R China
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000490466100011
WOS关键词	GENERATION ; SELECTION ; ENERGY ; MODEL
WOS类目	Engineering, Electrical & Electronic
WOS研究方向	Engineering
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/216260
作者单位	1.Guangxi Univ, Sch Elect Engn, 100 Daxuedong East Rd, Nanning, Peoples R China; 2.Guangxi Univ, Guangxi Key Lab Power Syst Optimizat & Energy Tec, 100 Daxuedong East Rd, Nanning, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chen, Bo,Li, Jinghua. Combined probabilistic forecasting method for photovoltaic power using an improved Markov chain[J],2019,13(19):4364-4373.
APA	Chen, Bo,&Li, Jinghua.(2019).Combined probabilistic forecasting method for photovoltaic power using an improved Markov chain.IET GENERATION TRANSMISSION & DISTRIBUTION,13(19),4364-4373.
MLA	Chen, Bo,et al."Combined probabilistic forecasting method for photovoltaic power using an improved Markov chain".IET GENERATION TRANSMISSION & DISTRIBUTION 13.19(2019):4364-4373.