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DOI	10.1016/j.eja.2019.125915
	Adapting irrigated and rainfed wheat to climate change in semi-arid environments: Management, breeding options and land use change
	Hernandez-Ochoa, Ixchel M.1; Luz Pequeno, Diego Notello 2; Reynolds, Matthew 2; Babar, Md Ali 5; Sonder, Kai 2; Molero Milan, Anabel 2; Hoogenboom, Gerrit 3; Robertson, Ricky 4; Gerber, Stefan 5; Rowland, Diane L.6; Fraisse, Clyde W.1; Asseng, Senthold 1
通讯作者	Asseng, Senthold
来源期刊	EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF AGRONOMY
ISSN	1161-0301
EISSN	1873-7331
出版年	2019
卷号	109
英文摘要	Mexico's 3.3 million tons current wheat production is projected to decline due to climate change. To counteract these negative impacts, we explored a range of plausible adaptation measures including change in crop management (early sowing and nitrogen fertilizer applications), crop genetic traits (early vigor, late flowering and heat tolerance) and wheat growing area expansion. Adaptation measures were simulated individually and in various combinations with a multi-crop model and multi-Global Climate Model ensemble across representative wheat growing regions and aggregated to national wheat production. Under both baseline (current) and future climate scenarios, most of the suggested individual and combined genetic traits resulted in a positive impact on irrigated wheat but were less beneficial in rainfed systems, with the largest responses observed with late flowering and increased N fertilizer. Increased N fertilizer applications on its own, but particularly combined with crop genetic traits showed the highest yield increase in the baseline, with further positive impacts in the future scenarios. Yield benefits from new crop genetic traits combined with increased N fertilizer applications could add about 672,000 t year(-1) to national wheat production, after losing 200,000 t year(-1) due to climate change by 2050s. Most effectively, expanding wheat to include all areas where wheat was previously grown during the last two decades could add 1.5 million t year(-1) now and 1.2 million t year(-1) in the future. Breeding for new crop genetic traits will reduce some of the negative impacts from future climate change, but improved cultivars need to be Implemented with suitable crop management, especially N fertilizer management.
英文关键词	Triticum Crop model ensemble Uncertainty
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	USA ; Mexico
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000479026000009
WOS关键词	HEAT TOLERANCE ; PHYSIOLOGICAL TRAITS ; WARM ENVIRONMENTS ; CROPPING SYSTEMS ; STEM ELONGATION ; USE EFFICIENCY ; FOOD SECURITY ; IMPROVE YIELD ; CHANGE IMPACT ; ELEVATED CO2
WOS类目	Agronomy
WOS研究方向	Agriculture
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/215580
作者单位	1.Univ Florida, Dept Agr & Biol Engn, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA; 2.Int Maize & Wheat Improvement Ctr, Mexico City 06600, DF, Mexico; 3.Univ Florida, Inst Sustainable Food Syst, Frazier Rogers Hall, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA; 4.Int Food Policy Res Inst, Washington, DC 20006 USA; 5.Univ Florida, Dept Soil & Water Sci, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA; 6.Univ Florida, Dept Agron, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hernandez-Ochoa, Ixchel M.,Luz Pequeno, Diego Notello,Reynolds, Matthew,et al. Adapting irrigated and rainfed wheat to climate change in semi-arid environments: Management, breeding options and land use change[J],2019,109.
APA	Hernandez-Ochoa, Ixchel M..,Luz Pequeno, Diego Notello.,Reynolds, Matthew.,Babar, Md Ali.,Sonder, Kai.,...&Asseng, Senthold.(2019).Adapting irrigated and rainfed wheat to climate change in semi-arid environments: Management, breeding options and land use change.EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF AGRONOMY,109.
MLA	Hernandez-Ochoa, Ixchel M.,et al."Adapting irrigated and rainfed wheat to climate change in semi-arid environments: Management, breeding options and land use change".EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF AGRONOMY 109(2019).