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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/aaf03d
	Model consensus projections of US regional hydroclimates under greenhouse warming
	Phillips, Thomas J.1,2,3; Bonfils, Celine J. W.1,2; Zhang, Chengzhu 2
通讯作者	Phillips, Thomas J.
来源期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN	1748-9326
出版年	2019
卷号	14 期号:1
英文摘要	We investigate ensemble-mean ('consensus') values of resolution-weighted CMIP5 multi-model simulations of 1976-2005 summer regional hydroclimates, and of their projected 2070-2099 changes under three progressively more severe representative concentration pathways greenhouse scenarios. Uncertainties in these consensus values are estimated from the cross-ensemble scatter. We analyze differences among 30 year present-day and future consensus summer hydroclimates that are averaged over three disparate regions of the United States: the semi-arid Southern Great Plains, the arid Southwest, and the humid Southeast. Our study considers the impact of several scenarios of greenhouse forcing on the regional averages of both single hydroclimatic variables and on ratios of variables which are indicative of continental drying, as well as the partitioning of surface moisture or available energy into their respective subcomponents. In all three study regions, there is a projected robust increase in surface temperature as the severity of the greenhouse scenario increases; but the regional-average hydroclimatic changes are comparatively uncertain, and often are not proportional to the change in surface warming. There is, however, a projected robust increase in continental drying that is manifested by several complementary measures, but that differs in magnitude by region. The prospect of future continental aridification should be viewed with some caution, however, since it may be a result of various shortcomings in current-generation climate models or in the specified greenhouse scenarios.
英文关键词	hydroclimatic change greenhouse warming climate modeling ensemble averaging
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	USA
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000455846100001
WOS关键词	NORTH-AMERICAN CLIMATE ; SURFACE-TEMPERATURE ; SOIL-MOISTURE ; UNITED-STATES ; PART I ; LAND ; CMIP5 ; ARIDITY ; PRECIPITATION ; VARIABILITY
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/215502
作者单位	1.Program Climate Model Diag & Intercomparison, Livermore, CA 94550 USA; 2.Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab, Mail Code L-103, Livermore, CA 94550 USA; 3.LLNL, PCMDI, Livermore, CA 94550 USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Phillips, Thomas J.,Bonfils, Celine J. W.,Zhang, Chengzhu. Model consensus projections of US regional hydroclimates under greenhouse warming[J],2019,14(1).
APA	Phillips, Thomas J.,Bonfils, Celine J. W.,&Zhang, Chengzhu.(2019).Model consensus projections of US regional hydroclimates under greenhouse warming.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,14(1).
MLA	Phillips, Thomas J.,et al."Model consensus projections of US regional hydroclimates under greenhouse warming".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 14.1(2019).