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DOI	10.1007/s10661-019-7644-4
	Assessing climate boundary shifting under climate change scenarios across Nepal
	Talchabhadel, Rocky 1,2; Karki, Ramchandra 1,3
通讯作者	Talchabhadel, Rocky
来源期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT
ISSN	0167-6369
EISSN	1573-2959
出版年	2019
卷号	191 期号:8
英文摘要	This study assesses the climate boundary shifts from the historical time to near/mid future by using a slightly modified Koppen-Geiger (KG) classification scheme and presents comprehensive pictures of historical (1960-1990) and projected near/mid future (1950s: 2040-2060/1970s: 2060-2080) climate classes across Nepal. Ensembles of three selected general circulation models (GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were used for projected future analysis. During the 1950s, annual average temperature is expected to increase by 2.5 degrees C under RCP 8.5. Similarly, during the 1970s, it is even anticipated to rise by 3.6 degrees C under RCP 8.5. The rate of temperature rise is higher in the non-monsoon period than in monsoon period. During the 1970s, annual precipitation is projected to increase by 8.1% under RCP 8.5. Even though the precipitation is anticipated to increase in the future in annual scale, winter seasons are estimated to be drier by more than 15%. This study shows significant increments of tropical (Am and Aw) and arid (BSk) climate types and reductions of temperate (Cwa and Cwb) and polar (ET and EF). Noticeably, the reduction of the areal coverage of polar frost (EF) is considerably high. In general, about 50% of the country's area is covered by the temperate climate (Cwa and Cwb) in baseline scenario and it is expected to reduce to 45% under RCP 4.5 and 42.5% under RCP 8.5 during the 1950s, and 42% under RCP 4.5 and 39% under RCP 8.5 during the 1970s. Importantly, the degree of climate boundary shifts is quite higher under RCP 8.5 than RCP 4.5, and likewise, the degree is higher during the 1970s than the 1950s. We believe this study to facilitate the identification of regions in which impacts of climate change are notable for crop production, soil management, and disaster risk reduction, requiring a more detailed assessment of adaptation measures. The assessment of climate boundary shifting can serve as valuable information for stakeholders of many disciplines like water, climate, transport, energy, environment, disaster, development, agriculture, and tourism.
英文关键词	Climate classification Koppen-Geiger (KG) Nepal Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) WorldClim
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	Nepal ; Japan ; Germany
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000477885000001
WOS关键词	EXTREME PRECIPITATION ; WORLD MAP ; CLASSIFICATION ; KOPPEN ; THORNTHWAITE ; TEMPERATURE ; HIMALAYA ; TRENDS ; IMPACT ; ZONES
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
来源机构	Arizona State University
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/215478
作者单位	1.Govt Nepal, Dept Hydrol & Meteorol, Kathmandu, Nepal; 2.Kyoto Univ, Disaster Prevent Res Inst, Kyoto, Japan; 3.Univ Hamburg, Inst Geog, Hamburg, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Talchabhadel, Rocky,Karki, Ramchandra. Assessing climate boundary shifting under climate change scenarios across Nepal[J]. Arizona State University,2019,191(8).
APA	Talchabhadel, Rocky,&Karki, Ramchandra.(2019).Assessing climate boundary shifting under climate change scenarios across Nepal.ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT,191(8).
MLA	Talchabhadel, Rocky,et al."Assessing climate boundary shifting under climate change scenarios across Nepal".ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT 191.8(2019).