干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): A downscaling-disaggregation approach for developing IDF curves in arid regions

Arid

DOI	10.1007/s10661-019-7385-4
	A downscaling-disaggregation approach for developing IDF curves in arid regions
	Uraba, Mahmoud Bani 1; Gunawardhana, Luminda Niroshana 2; Al-Rawas, Ghazi A.2; Baawain, Mahad S.2
通讯作者	Gunawardhana, Luminda Niroshana
来源期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT
ISSN	0167-6369
EISSN	1573-2959
出版年	2019
卷号	191 期号:4
英文摘要	Over the past decades, urbanization in Arabian Gulf region expands in flood-prone areas at an unprecedented rate. Chronic water stress and potential changes in extreme rainfall attributed to climate change therefore pose unique challenges in planning and designing water management infrastructures. The objective of this study is to develop a framework to integrate climate change variations into intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves in Oman. A two-stage downscaling-disaggregation method was applied with rainfall at Tawi-Atair station in Dhofar region. Potential variations of extreme rainfall in future were examined by eight scenarios composed with two general circulation models (GCMs), two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), and two future periods (2040-2059 and 2080-2099). A stochastic weather generator model was used to downscale rainfall output from GCM grid scale to local scale. Downscaled daily data were then disaggregated to hourly and 5-min series by using K-nearest neighbor (K-NN) technique. Annual maximum rainfall extracted from eight future scenarios and also from present climate (baseline period) was used to develop rainfall intensity-frequency relationships for eight durations range from 5min to 24h. Results of the K-NN analysis indicate that the optimum window size of 57days and 181h is suitable for hourly and 5-min disaggregation models, respectively. Results also predict that the effects of climate change on the rainfall intensity will be more significant on storms with shorter durations and higher return periods. Moving towards the end of the twenty-first century, the return period of extreme rainfall events is likely to decrease due to intensified rainfall events.
英文关键词	Climate change Lars WG CMIP5 K-NN technique
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	Oman
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000462609200002
WOS关键词	WEATHER GENERATOR ; RAINFALL ; PRECIPITATION ; FLOODS ; IMPACT
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/215470
作者单位	1.Ooredoo Telecommun Co, Muscat, Oman; 2.Sultan Qaboos Univ, Civil & Architectural Engn Dept, Coll Engn, POB 33, Muscat 123, Oman
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Uraba, Mahmoud Bani,Gunawardhana, Luminda Niroshana,Al-Rawas, Ghazi A.,et al. A downscaling-disaggregation approach for developing IDF curves in arid regions[J],2019,191(4).
APA	Uraba, Mahmoud Bani,Gunawardhana, Luminda Niroshana,Al-Rawas, Ghazi A.,&Baawain, Mahad S..(2019).A downscaling-disaggregation approach for developing IDF curves in arid regions.ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT,191(4).
MLA	Uraba, Mahmoud Bani,et al."A downscaling-disaggregation approach for developing IDF curves in arid regions".ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT 191.4(2019).