干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Forthcoming risk of Prosopis juliflora global invasion triggered by climate change: implications for environmental monitoring and risk assessment

Arid

DOI	10.1007/s10661-018-7154-9
	Forthcoming risk of Prosopis juliflora global invasion triggered by climate change: implications for environmental monitoring and risk assessment
	Heshmati, Iraj 1; Khorasani, Nematollah 1; Shams-Esfandabad, Bahman 2; Riazi, Borhan 1
通讯作者	Khorasani, Nematollah
来源期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT
ISSN	0167-6369
EISSN	1573-2959
出版年	2019
卷号	191 期号:2
英文摘要	Climate is a determinant factor in species distribution and climate change will affect the species abilities to occupy geographic regions. Prosopis juliflora is one of the most problematic invasive species and its biological invasion causes various negative effects in tropical, arid, and semi-arid regions of the world. As eradication efforts subsequent to the establishment of an alien invasive species are costly and time-consuming, assessing patterns of the introduction of an invasive species to new regions is among the most cost-effective means of monitoring and management of natural ecosystems. In this study by using the concept of species distribution modeling (SDM) and maximum entropy (MaxEnt) method, the effect of climate change on the current and future distribution of P. juliflora has been assessed at a global scale. Bioclimatic variables in current condition and 2050 regarding two global circulation models (GCM) and two climate change scenarios were considered as explanatory variables. Our results showed that annual mean temperature (BIO1), annual precipitation (BIO12), and temperature mean diurnal range (BIO2) represented more than 87% of the variations in the model, and with an AUC of 0.854 and TSS of 0.51, the model showed a good predictive performance. Our results indicate that on a global scale, suitable ranges for P. juliflora increase across all the GCM and RCP scenarios. In a global scale, Mediterranean Basin, Middle East, and North America are regions with the highest risk of range expansion in the future. Regarding the negative impacts of P. juliflora on structure and function of natural habitats in the invaded areas, findings of this study could be considered as a warning appliance for the environmental monitoring of the regions highly sensitive to the global invasion of the species. We suggest that assessing impacts of climate change on the global distribution of the invasive species could be used as an efficient tool to implement broad-scale and priority-setting monitoring programs in natural ecosystems.
英文关键词	Mesquite Alien species Range expansion MaxEnt Biological invasion
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	Iran
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000455813800007
WOS关键词	SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS ; NICHE ; PLANT ; RESPONSES ; IMPACTS ; RANGES ; SHIFTS ; DISTRIBUTIONS ; CONSEQUENCES ; EVOLUTIONARY
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/215467
作者单位	1.Islamic Azad Univ, Sci & Res Branch, Fac Nat Resources & Environm, Dept Environm Sci, Tehran, Iran; 2.Islamic Azad Univ, Fac Agr & Nat Resources, Arak Branch, Dept Environm Sci, Arak, Iran
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Heshmati, Iraj,Khorasani, Nematollah,Shams-Esfandabad, Bahman,et al. Forthcoming risk of Prosopis juliflora global invasion triggered by climate change: implications for environmental monitoring and risk assessment[J],2019,191(2).
APA	Heshmati, Iraj,Khorasani, Nematollah,Shams-Esfandabad, Bahman,&Riazi, Borhan.(2019).Forthcoming risk of Prosopis juliflora global invasion triggered by climate change: implications for environmental monitoring and risk assessment.ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT,191(2).
MLA	Heshmati, Iraj,et al."Forthcoming risk of Prosopis juliflora global invasion triggered by climate change: implications for environmental monitoring and risk assessment".ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT 191.2(2019).