干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Improving development efficiency through decision analysis: Reservoir protection in Burkina Faso

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.01.016
	Improving development efficiency through decision analysis: Reservoir protection in Burkina Faso
	Lanzanova, Denis 1,2; Whitney, Cory 2; Shepherd, Keith 3; Luedeling, Eike 3,4
通讯作者	Lanzanova, Denis
来源期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE
ISSN	1364-8152
EISSN	1873-6726
出版年	2019
卷号	115 页码:164-175
英文摘要	In the arid areas of Sub-Saharan Africa, perennial challenges of water scarcity and food insecurity are exacerbated by climate change and variability. The development of robust strategies to cope with the region's climatic challenges requires thorough consideration of uncertainty and risk in decision making. We demonstrate the use of probabilistic decision analysis to compare intervention options to prevent reservoir sedimentation in Burkina Faso. To illustrate this approach, we developed a causal impact pathway model based on the local knowledge of expert stakeholders. Input parameters were described by probability distributions derived from estimated confidence intervals. The model was run in a Monte Carlo simulation to generate the range of plausible decision outcomes, quantified as the net present value and the annual cash flow. We used Partial Least Squares regression analysis to identify the parameters that most affected projected intervention outcomes and we computed the Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) to highlight critical uncertainties. Numerical results show that the preferred intervention to secure agricultural production is a combination of dredging, rock dams and a buffer scheme around the reservoir. The EVPI calculation reveals an information value for the profit per ton of vegetables, indicating that more information on this variable would be useful for supporting the decision. However, without the need for follow-up analysis, the results show high probability of benefits given the combined interventions, which, given the current state of information, should be preferred over inaction.
英文关键词	Monte-Carlo simulation Decision analysis Uncertainty assessment Reservoir sedimentation Burkina Faso
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	Switzerland ; Germany ; Kenya
开放获取类型	Green Published
收录类别	SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号	WOS:000460643900014
WOS关键词	SENSITIVITY-ANALYSIS ; DEEP UNCERTAINTY ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; MODELS ; AGRICULTURE ; IRRIGATION ; MANAGEMENT ; REGRESSION ; KNOWLEDGE ; FRAMEWORK
WOS类目	Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications ; Engineering, Environmental ; Environmental Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Computer Science ; Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Water Resources
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/215458
作者单位	1.Univ Geneva, Inst Environm Sci, Blvd Carl Vogt 66, CH-1205 Geneva, Switzerland; 2.Univ Bonn, Res Dev Ctr, Genscherallee 3, D-53113 Bonn, Germany; 3.World Agroforestry Ctr, United Nations Ave, Nairobi, Kenya; 4.Univ Bonn, INRES Hort Sci, Hugel 6, D-53121 Bonn, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lanzanova, Denis,Whitney, Cory,Shepherd, Keith,et al. Improving development efficiency through decision analysis: Reservoir protection in Burkina Faso[J],2019,115:164-175.
APA	Lanzanova, Denis,Whitney, Cory,Shepherd, Keith,&Luedeling, Eike.(2019).Improving development efficiency through decision analysis: Reservoir protection in Burkina Faso.ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE,115,164-175.
MLA	Lanzanova, Denis,et al."Improving development efficiency through decision analysis: Reservoir protection in Burkina Faso".ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE 115(2019):164-175.