干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Forecasting near-future impacts of land use and climate change on the Zilbier river hydrological regime, northwestern Iran

Arid

DOI	10.1007/s12665-019-8193-4
	Forecasting near-future impacts of land use and climate change on the Zilbier river hydrological regime, northwestern Iran
	Andaryani, Soghra 1; Trolle, Dennis 2; Nikjoo, M. R.1; Moghadam, M. H. Rezaei 1; Mokhtari, Davod 1
通讯作者	Andaryani, Soghra
来源期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL EARTH SCIENCES
ISSN	1866-6280
EISSN	1866-6299
出版年	2019
卷号	78 期号:6
英文摘要	We study and forecast the effects of near-future (NF) land use and climate changes (LUCC) on the hydrological regime (HR) within the Zilbier river basin located in arid and semiarid regions, in the Azerbaijan province in northeast and northwest of Iran in the recent past (2004-2014) and 2030. We used the baseline data (S-B) and 13 potential NF scenarios to evaluate the effects of changes in land use, temperature and precipitation, both in isolation and in combined scenarios by application of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Climate changes (CC) were represented by the delta change approach based on trends for past 3 (1985-2014) or last decade (2005-2014), respectively (low delta change (LDC) and high delta change (HDC)), where the trends of the most recent decade yield a higher delta change when extrapolating to 2030. Similarly, land use changes were derived from trends observed based from satellite imagery and Cellular Automata-Markov model (CAM). In the NF, the results indicated that the climate would universally become warmer and drier under both LDC and HDC and increase the high-consumption land uses such as orchards in the study area, respectively. In 2030, CC tend to effect more conspicuously the HR than LU changes, leading to decrease in the entire hydrological component except evapotranspiration. Surveying the whole array of the simulated scenarios, there were clear and non-linear synergistic effects of the combination of LU and CC scenarios, and taking into account both of these is, therefore, critically important if model results are to be used for decision-making support.
英文关键词	SWAT Land use and climate change Hydrology regime Zilbier river basin
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	Iran ; Denmark
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000460435200002
WOS关键词	COVER CLASSIFICATION ; SWAT MODEL ; STREAMFLOW ; CATCHMENT ; SURFACE ; RUNOFF ; BASIN ; LAKE ; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; AVAILABILITY
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Water Resources
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/215399
作者单位	1.Univ Tabriz, Dept Planning & Environm Management, 29 Bahman Blvd, Tabriz, Iran; 2.Aarhus Univ, Dept Biosci, Silkeborg, Denmark
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Andaryani, Soghra,Trolle, Dennis,Nikjoo, M. R.,et al. Forecasting near-future impacts of land use and climate change on the Zilbier river hydrological regime, northwestern Iran[J],2019,78(6).
APA	Andaryani, Soghra,Trolle, Dennis,Nikjoo, M. R.,Moghadam, M. H. Rezaei,&Mokhtari, Davod.(2019).Forecasting near-future impacts of land use and climate change on the Zilbier river hydrological regime, northwestern Iran.ENVIRONMENTAL EARTH SCIENCES,78(6).
MLA	Andaryani, Soghra,et al."Forecasting near-future impacts of land use and climate change on the Zilbier river hydrological regime, northwestern Iran".ENVIRONMENTAL EARTH SCIENCES 78.6(2019).