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DOI	10.1007/s10651-019-00419-2
	Modelling relationships between socioeconomy, landscape and water flows in Mediterranean agroecosystems: a case study in Adra catchment (Spain) using Bayesian networks
	Ropero, Rosa F.1; Rumi, Rafael 2; Aguilera, Pedro A.1
通讯作者	Ropero, Rosa F.
来源期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECOLOGICAL STATISTICS
ISSN	1352-8505
EISSN	1573-3009
出版年	2019
卷号	26 期号:1 页码:47-86
英文摘要	In Mediterranean areas, the co-evolution between social and natural systems has given rise to heterogeneous and complex systems of interactions called agroecosystems, in which strong relationships between socioeconomy, landscape and water flows have been identified. In this context, water resources management is a prominent area of research, particularly in semi-arid conditions, where a special set of challenges requires novel tools to deal with uncertainty, multiple sources of information and expert knowledge. In this paper, Bayesian Networks are proposed as a means to model the relationships between socioeconomy, landscape and water flows in a Mediterranean agroecosystem, studying its behaviour under two scenarios of change in land use trends: maintenance of traditional Mediterranean agriculture, and agricultural intensification through the development of greenhouses. Results show that an increase in the area of traditional agriculture would lead to better control of runoff and increased primary productivity, measured as green water flows. By contrast, agricultural intensification of the territory would provoke an increase in evaporation and water losses. Due to the versatility of Bayesian networks, results can be expressed not only as probabilities, but also using other metrics that can be computed from them. Accordingly, Sensitivity Analysis to Evidence, Sensitivity Analysis to Parameters and the Kullback-Leibler divergence were carried out. Bayesian Networks have demonstrated their ability to deal with uncertainty inherent to natural systems, combining expert knowledge, data from regional datasets and Geographical Information Systems, and automatic training algorithms giving robust and proper results.
英文关键词	Bayesian networks Green and blue water Kullback-Leibler divergence Landscape change trends Mediterranean agroecosystems Sensitivity analysis
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	Spain
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000461397600003
WOS关键词	LAND-USE ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; RESOURCES MANAGEMENT ; BELIEF NETWORKS ; CONSEQUENCES ; IMPACTS ; SYSTEMS
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications ; Statistics & Probability
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Mathematics
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/215383
作者单位	1.Univ Almeria, Informat & Environm Res Grp, Dept Biol & Geol, Almeria, Spain; 2.Univ Almeria, Dept Math, Almeria, Spain
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ropero, Rosa F.,Rumi, Rafael,Aguilera, Pedro A.. Modelling relationships between socioeconomy, landscape and water flows in Mediterranean agroecosystems: a case study in Adra catchment (Spain) using Bayesian networks[J],2019,26(1):47-86.
APA	Ropero, Rosa F.,Rumi, Rafael,&Aguilera, Pedro A..(2019).Modelling relationships between socioeconomy, landscape and water flows in Mediterranean agroecosystems: a case study in Adra catchment (Spain) using Bayesian networks.ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECOLOGICAL STATISTICS,26(1),47-86.
MLA	Ropero, Rosa F.,et al."Modelling relationships between socioeconomy, landscape and water flows in Mediterranean agroecosystems: a case study in Adra catchment (Spain) using Bayesian networks".ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECOLOGICAL STATISTICS 26.1(2019):47-86.