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DOI	10.1002/ecy.2778
	Filling in the gaps in survival analysis: using field data to infer plant responses to environmental stressors
	Tomasek, Bradley J.1,2,4; Burghardt, Liana T.3,5; Shriver, Robert K.1,3
通讯作者	Tomasek, Bradley J.
来源期刊	ECOLOGY
ISSN	0012-9658
EISSN	1939-9170
出版年	2019
卷号	100 期号:10
英文摘要	Elucidating how organismal survival depends on the environment is a core component of ecological and evolutionary research. To reconcile high-frequency covariates with lower-frequency demographic censuses, many statistical tools involve aggregating environmental conditions over long periods, potentially obscuring the importance of fluctuating conditions in driving mortality. Here, we introduce a flexible model designed to infer how survival probabilities depend on changing environmental covariates. Specifically, the model (1) quantifies effects of environmental covariates at a higher frequency than the census intervals, and (2) allows partitioning of environmental drivers of individual survival into acute (short-term) and chronic (accumulated) effects. By applying our method to a long-term observational data set of eight annual plant species, we show we can accurately infer daily survival probabilities as temperature and moisture levels change. Next, we show that a species' water use efficiency, known to mediate annual plant population dynamics, is positively correlated with the importance of chronic stress inferred by the model. This suggests that model parameters can reflect underlying physiological mechanisms. This method is also applicable to other binary responses (hatching, phenology) or systems (insects, nestlings). Once known, environmental sensitivities can be used for ecological forecasting even when the frequency or variability of environments are changing.
英文关键词	desert winter annuals ecological forecasting environmental variation interval-censoring mortality Sonoran Desert time-varying covariate survival analysis
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	USA
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000481252200001
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE ; DROUGHT ; DRIVERS ; MODELS
WOS类目	Ecology
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/215239
作者单位	1.Duke Univ, Program Ecol, Biol Sci Bldg,130 Sci Dr, Durham, NC 27708 USA; 2.Duke Univ, Nicholas Sch Environm, Durham, NC 27708 USA; 3.Duke Univ, Dept Biol, Biol Sci Bldg,130 Sci Dr, Durham, NC 27708 USA; 4.2000 W Lincoln St, Mt Prospect, IL 60056 USA; 5.Univ Minnesota, Dept Plant & Microbial Biol, 1479 Gortner Ave, St Paul, MN 55108 USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Tomasek, Bradley J.,Burghardt, Liana T.,Shriver, Robert K.. Filling in the gaps in survival analysis: using field data to infer plant responses to environmental stressors[J],2019,100(10).
APA	Tomasek, Bradley J.,Burghardt, Liana T.,&Shriver, Robert K..(2019).Filling in the gaps in survival analysis: using field data to infer plant responses to environmental stressors.ECOLOGY,100(10).
MLA	Tomasek, Bradley J.,et al."Filling in the gaps in survival analysis: using field data to infer plant responses to environmental stressors".ECOLOGY 100.10(2019).