干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Drought-mediated extinction of an arid-land amphibian: insights from a spatially explicit dynamic occupancy model

Arid

DOI	10.1002/eap.1859
	Drought-mediated extinction of an arid-land amphibian: insights from a spatially explicit dynamic occupancy model
	Zylstra, Erin R.1,5; Swann, Don E.2; Hossack, Blake R.3; Muths, Erin 4; Steidl, Robert J.1
通讯作者	Zylstra, Erin R.
来源期刊	ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS
ISSN	1051-0761
EISSN	1939-5582
出版年	2019
卷号	29 期号:3
英文摘要	Understanding how natural and anthropogenic processes affect population dynamics of species with patchy distributions is critical to predicting their responses to environmental changes. Despite considerable evidence that demographic rates and dispersal patterns vary temporally in response to an array of biotic and abiotic processes, few applications of metapopulation theory have sought to explore factors that explain spatiotemporal variation in extinction or colonization rates. To facilitate exploring these factors, we extended a spatially explicit model of metapopulation dynamics to create a framework that requires only binary presence-absence data, makes few assumptions about the dispersal process, and accounts for imperfect detection. We apply this framework to 22 yr of biannual survey data for lowland leopard frogs, Lithobates yavapaiensis, an amphibian that inhabits arid stream systems in the southwestern United States and northern Mexico. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for factors that govern temporal variation in transition probabilities, as both extinction and colonization rates varied with hydrologic conditions. Specifically, local extinctions were more frequent during drought periods, particularly at sites without reliable surface water. Colonization rates increased when larval and dispersal periods were wetter than normal, which increased the probability that potential emigrants metamorphosed and reached neighboring sites. Extirpation of frogs from all sites in one watershed during a period of severe drought demonstrated the influence of site-level features, as frogs persisted only in areas where most sites held water consistently and where the amount of sediment deposited from high-elevation wildfires was low. Application of our model provided novel insights into how climate-related processes affected the distribution and population dynamics of an arid-land amphibian. The approach we describe has application to a wide array of species that inhabit patchy environments, can improve our understanding of factors that govern metapopulation dynamics, and can inform strategies for conservation of imperiled species.
英文关键词	Bayesian state-space model climate colonization extinction Lithobates yavapaiensis lowland leopard frog metapopulation dynamics sedimentation stream network
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	USA
开放获取类型	Green Accepted
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000463954800008
WOS关键词	LOWLAND LEOPARD FROGS ; METAPOPULATION DYNAMICS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; PATCH CHARACTERISTICS ; POPULATION DECLINES ; CONNECTIVITY ; RESPONSES ; WILDFIRE ; SPACE ; COLONIZATION
WOS类目	Ecology ; Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
来源机构	University of Arizona ; United States Geological Survey
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/215150
作者单位	1.Univ Arizona, Sch Nat Resources & Environm, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA; 2.Natl Pk Serv, Saguaro Natl Pk, Tucson, AZ 85730 USA; 3.US Geol Survey, Northern Rocky Mt Sci Ctr, Missoula, MT 59801 USA; 4.US Geol Survey, Ft Collins Sci Ctr, Ft Collins, CO 80526 USA; 5.Michigan State Univ, Dept Integrat Biol, 288 Farm Lane, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zylstra, Erin R.,Swann, Don E.,Hossack, Blake R.,et al. Drought-mediated extinction of an arid-land amphibian: insights from a spatially explicit dynamic occupancy model[J]. University of Arizona, United States Geological Survey,2019,29(3).
APA	Zylstra, Erin R.,Swann, Don E.,Hossack, Blake R.,Muths, Erin,&Steidl, Robert J..(2019).Drought-mediated extinction of an arid-land amphibian: insights from a spatially explicit dynamic occupancy model.ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS,29(3).
MLA	Zylstra, Erin R.,et al."Drought-mediated extinction of an arid-land amphibian: insights from a spatially explicit dynamic occupancy model".ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS 29.3(2019).