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DOI	10.1029/2018EF001047
	How Do Modeling Decisions Affect the Spread Among Hydrologic Climate Change Projections? Exploring a Large Ensemble of Simulations Across a Diversity of Hydroclimates
	Chegwidden, Oriana S.1; Nijssen, Bart 1; Rupp, David E.2; Arnold, Jeffrey R.3; Clare, Martyn P.4,5; Hamman, Joseph J.4,6; Kao, Shih-Chieh 7; Mao, Yixin 1; Mizukami, Naoki 4; Mote, Philip W.2; Pan, Ming 8; Pytlak, Erik 9; Xiao, Mu 10
通讯作者	Nijssen, Bart
来源期刊	EARTHS FUTURE
EISSN	2328-4277
出版年	2019
卷号	7 期号:6 页码:623-637
英文摘要	Methodological choices can have strong effects on projections of climate change impacts on hydrology. In this study, we investigate the ways in which four different steps in the modeling chain influence the spread in projected changes of different aspects of hydrology. To form the basis of these analyses, we constructed an ensemble of 160 simulations from permutations of two Representative Concentration Pathways, 10 global climate models, two downscaling methods, and four hydrologic model implementations. The study is situated in the Pacific Northwest of North America, which has relevance to a diverse, multinational cast of stakeholders. We analyze the effects of each modeling decision on changes in gridded hydrologic variables of snow water equivalent and runoff, as well as streamflow at point locations. Results show that the choice of representative concentration pathway or global climate model is the driving contributor to the spread in annual streamflow volume and timing. On the other hand, hydrologic model implementation explains most of the spread in changes in low flows. Finally, by grouping the results by climate region the results have the potential to be generalized beyond the Pacific Northwest. Future hydrologic impact assessments can use these results to better tailor their modeling efforts. Patient Language Summary Future climate change will affect water resources throughout the Pacific Northwest of North America. Simulation experiments and recent observations agree that there will be less snow and it will melt earlier, which will impact the timing and amount of streamflow. However, the magnitudes of these changes are uncertain. In this study, we analyzed the spread among 160 different simulated scenarios of the hydrologic future. We show that the ways we represent the future atmosphere and land surface can have strong effects on our final predictions. Specifically, the way that we model the land surface has a large impact on predictions in arid zones or during dry periods. However, the way we model the atmosphere affects our predictions of changes in snow, snowmelt, and streamflow timing. Our findings are helpful for understanding future hydrologic change more thoroughly, which is of particular importance given international agreements in the Columbia River Basin.
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	USA ; Canada
开放获取类型	Green Submitted, gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000474508700004
WOS关键词	ASSESSING UNCERTAINTIES ; CHANGE IMPACTS ; UNITED-STATES ; LARGE-SCALE ; SNOWPACK ; VARIABILITY ; SCENARIOS ; REGIONS ; REGIMES ; FLUXES
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
来源机构	University of California, Los Angeles
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/215104
作者单位	1.Univ Washington, Civil & Environm Engn, Seattle, WA 98195 USA; 2.Oregon State Univ, Oregon Climate Change Res Inst, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA; 3.US Army Corps Engineers, Climate Preparedness & Resilience Program, Seattle, WA USA; 4.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Res Applicat Lab, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA; 5.Univ Saskatchewan, Coldwater Lab, Canmore, AB, Canada; 6.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Climate & Global Dynam, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA; 7.Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Environm Sci Div, Oak Ridge, TN USA; 8.Princeton Univ, Civil & Environm Engn, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA; 9.Bonneville Power Adm, Portland, OR USA; 10.Univ Calif Los Angeles, Geog, Los Angeles, CA USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chegwidden, Oriana S.,Nijssen, Bart,Rupp, David E.,et al. How Do Modeling Decisions Affect the Spread Among Hydrologic Climate Change Projections? Exploring a Large Ensemble of Simulations Across a Diversity of Hydroclimates[J]. University of California, Los Angeles,2019,7(6):623-637.
APA	Chegwidden, Oriana S..,Nijssen, Bart.,Rupp, David E..,Arnold, Jeffrey R..,Clare, Martyn P..,...&Xiao, Mu.(2019).How Do Modeling Decisions Affect the Spread Among Hydrologic Climate Change Projections? Exploring a Large Ensemble of Simulations Across a Diversity of Hydroclimates.EARTHS FUTURE,7(6),623-637.
MLA	Chegwidden, Oriana S.,et al."How Do Modeling Decisions Affect the Spread Among Hydrologic Climate Change Projections? Exploring a Large Ensemble of Simulations Across a Diversity of Hydroclimates".EARTHS FUTURE 7.6(2019):623-637.