干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Impacts of 21st-century climate change on montane habitat in the Madrean Sky Island Archipelago

Arid

DOI	10.1111/ddi.12965
	Impacts of 21st-century climate change on montane habitat in the Madrean Sky Island Archipelago
	Yanahan, Alan D.1; Moore, Wendy 2
通讯作者	Yanahan, Alan D.
来源期刊	DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS
ISSN	1366-9516
EISSN	1472-4642
出版年	2019
卷号	25 期号:10 页码:1625-1638
英文摘要	Aim The Madrean Sky Island Archipelago is a North American biodiversity hotspot composed of similar to 60 isolated mountains that span the Cordilleran Gap between the Rocky Mountains and the Sierra Madre Occidental. Characterized by discrete patches of high-elevation montane habitat, these sky islands serve as stepping stones across a sea of desert scrub/grassland. Over this coming century, the region is expected to shift towards a warmer and drier climate. We used species distribution modelling to predict how the spatial distribution of montane habitat will be affected by climate change. Location Madrean Sky Island Archipelago, south-west United States and north-west Mexico (latitude, 29-34 degrees N; longitude, 107-112 degrees W). Methods To approximate the current distribution of montane habitat, we built species distribution models for five high-elevation species (Ceanothus fendleri, Pinus strobiformis, Quercus gambelii, Sciurus aberti, and Synuchus dubius). The resulting models were projected under multiple climate change scenarios-four greenhouse gas concentration trajectories (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) for each of three climate models (CCSM4, MPI-ESM-LR, and NorESM1-M)-to generate predicted distributions for the years 2050 and 2070. We performed chi-squared tests to detect any future changes to total montane habitat area, and Conover-Iman tests to evaluate isolation among the discrete montane habitat patches. Results While the climate models differ with respect to their predictions as to how severe the effects of future climate change will be, they all agree that by as early as year 2050, there will be significant montane habitat loss and increased montane habitat patch isolation across the Madrean Archipelago region under a worst-case climate change scenario (RCP 8.5). Main conclusions Our results suggest that under 21st-century climate change, the Madrean Sky Islands will become increasingly isolated due to montane habitat loss. This may affect their ability to serve as stepping stones and have negative implications for the region's biodiversity.
英文关键词	biodiversity hotspot climate change Madrean Sky Island Archipelago montane habitat species distribution modelling stepping stones
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	USA
开放获取类型	gold, Green Published
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000477169100001
WOS关键词	WESTERN UNITED-STATES ; GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTIONS ; SPECIES DISTRIBUTIONS ; GENETIC-VARIATION ; POPULATION-SIZE ; BARK BEETLES ; RANGE SHIFTS ; NICHE ; PLANT ; DISPERSAL
WOS类目	Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology
WOS研究方向	Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
来源机构	University of Arizona
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/215056
作者单位	1.Univ Arizona, Grad Interdisciplinary Program Entomol & Insect S, 1145 East 4th St,POB 210036, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA; 2.Univ Arizona, Dept Entomol, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yanahan, Alan D.,Moore, Wendy. Impacts of 21st-century climate change on montane habitat in the Madrean Sky Island Archipelago[J]. University of Arizona,2019,25(10):1625-1638.
APA	Yanahan, Alan D.,&Moore, Wendy.(2019).Impacts of 21st-century climate change on montane habitat in the Madrean Sky Island Archipelago.DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS,25(10),1625-1638.
MLA	Yanahan, Alan D.,et al."Impacts of 21st-century climate change on montane habitat in the Madrean Sky Island Archipelago".DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS 25.10(2019):1625-1638.