干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): A modified Logit model for assessment and validation of debris-flow susceptibility

Arid

DOI	10.1007/s10064-018-1412-5
	A modified Logit model for assessment and validation of debris-flow susceptibility
	Wu, Saier 1; Chen, Jian 1; Zhou, Wendy 2; Iqbal, Javed 3; Yao, Leihua 1
通讯作者	Chen, Jian
来源期刊	BULLETIN OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT
ISSN	1435-9529
EISSN	1435-9537
出版年	2019
卷号	78 期号:6 页码:4421-4438
英文摘要	The accuracy of a debris-flow susceptibility assessment model can not be achieved to an acceptable level without rigorously selecting/processing model input parameters and reliably validating the results with ground truth. In this study, a modified logistic regression model was applied to examine the debris-flow susceptibility in the semi-arid mountainous areas of the southeast Tibetan Plateau, taking the case of the Benzilan-Changbo segment of the Jinsha River. The logistic regression model validation was supported by a field investigation and interpreting aerial photographs. The frequency ratio method was adapted for the sensitivity analysis of ten predisposing factors, including a factor of human activities that has never been considered in previous studies for the selected study area. The model with the highest prediction accuracy (83%) was obtained by comparing 55 possible combinations of the ten factors evaluated using a receiver operating characteristic curve technique. Composite analysis and random sample testing were also conducted to verify the reliability of the susceptibility assessment. The prediction results showed that the actual debris-flow area accounted for 92% of the total predicted debris-flow area. In summary, this study reveals that: (1) the highest susceptibility area was mainly distributed in the northeast and middle riparian zones, partially scattered in the southwest. Human activity was found to be closely related to the probability of debris flow occurrences; (2) under the two situations of independent and index combination participation evaluation, the performances of the same related factors showed largely different effects on the assessment results, which reflected the interrelation and interaction of the factors causing the debris flow; (3) the accuracy of the modified logistic regression model increased by 15%, when compared with the index entropy model in a previous study, and the reasons for this were discussed in the current study. The modified model, along with its enhanced validation process, could be easily extended to other regional mass movement susceptibility analyses.
英文关键词	Semi-arid mountainous areas Debris flow Logistic regression model Susceptibility Jinsha River
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	Peoples R China ; USA ; Pakistan
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000482240400038
WOS关键词	ANALYTICAL HIERARCHY PROCESS ; UPPER JINSHA RIVER ; LANDSLIDE HAZARD ASSESSMENT ; ARTIFICIAL NEURAL-NETWORKS ; 2008 WENCHUAN EARTHQUAKE ; SE TIBETAN PLATEAU ; LOGISTIC-REGRESSION ; SHALLOW LANDSLIDES ; CONDITIONAL-PROBABILITY ; GENETIC ALGORITHMS
WOS类目	Engineering, Environmental ; Engineering, Geological ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向	Engineering ; Geology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/214750
作者单位	1.China Univ Geosci, Sch Engn & Technol, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China; 2.Colorado Sch Mines, Dept Geol & Geol Engn, Golden, CO 80401 USA; 3.Abbottabad Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Earth Sci, Abbottabad, Pakistan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wu, Saier,Chen, Jian,Zhou, Wendy,et al. A modified Logit model for assessment and validation of debris-flow susceptibility[J],2019,78(6):4421-4438.
APA	Wu, Saier,Chen, Jian,Zhou, Wendy,Iqbal, Javed,&Yao, Leihua.(2019).A modified Logit model for assessment and validation of debris-flow susceptibility.BULLETIN OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT,78(6),4421-4438.
MLA	Wu, Saier,et al."A modified Logit model for assessment and validation of debris-flow susceptibility".BULLETIN OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT 78.6(2019):4421-4438.