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DOI	10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.01.156
	Sensitivity of Western US power system dynamics to droughts compounded with fuel price variability
	O’Connell 1; Voisin, Nathalie 2,3; Macknick 1; Fu 2
通讯作者	Voisin, Nathalie
来源期刊	APPLIED ENERGY
ISSN	0306-2619
EISSN	1872-9118
出版年	2019
卷号	247 页码:745-754
英文摘要	The energy sector is heavily dependent on surface water availability for reliable electricity generation. Power system operations are usually evaluated through system reliability and economic perspectives, with assumptions based on market prices and normal water availability. As natural gas technologies continue to dominate new thermal capacity, replacing retiring coal and nuclear generators, natural gas price stability becomes increasingly important and the impact of price volatility on grid operations must be understood. Here, we explore the range of Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) regional power operations, which represents the electric interconnection over the western half of the continental United States, using a production cost model driven by different fuel prices and an integrated hydrology model to simulate historical water availability. Our results show system-wide operation costs increasing in drought years or when gas prices increase, as expected. In addition, we found those system-wide increases can be of the same magnitude. Regional analysis of the responses to compounded droughts and price volatility highlight differences in magnitude and direction depending on regional generation technology portfolios. The Pacific Northwest is most sensitive to drought conditions, Southern California is most sensitive to gas prices, and the Desert Southwest is sensitive to both with the same magnitude. This analysis motivates further research in combined hydrology and power system modeling to characterize regional dynamics and associated uncertainties across scales, which is an important underpinning for the development of more resilient energy and water systems.
英文关键词	Production cost model Hydropower Drought Natural gas Market price Planning
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	USA
开放获取类型	Green Submitted
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000470948200060
WOS关键词	LAND-SURFACE ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; WATER ; GENERATION ; IMPACTS ; FLUXES ; MODEL
WOS类目	Energy & Fuels ; Engineering, Chemical
WOS研究方向	Energy & Fuels ; Engineering
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/214250
作者单位	1.Natl Renewable Energy Lab, Golden, CA USA; 2.Pacific Northwest Natl Lab, Richland, WA 99352 USA; 3.Univ Washington, Civil & Environm Engn, Seattle, WA 98195 USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	O’Connell,Voisin, Nathalie,Macknick,et al. Sensitivity of Western US power system dynamics to droughts compounded with fuel price variability[J],2019,247:745-754.
APA	O’Connell,Voisin, Nathalie,Macknick,&Fu.(2019).Sensitivity of Western US power system dynamics to droughts compounded with fuel price variability.APPLIED ENERGY,247,745-754.
MLA	O’Connell,et al."Sensitivity of Western US power system dynamics to droughts compounded with fuel price variability".APPLIED ENERGY 247(2019):745-754.