干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Rethinking catastrophe? Historical trajectories and modelled future vegetation change in southern Africa

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.ancene.2018.12.003
	Rethinking catastrophe? Historical trajectories and modelled future vegetation change in southern Africa
	Hoffman, M. Timm 1; Rohde, Rick F.2; Gillson, Lindsey 1
通讯作者	Hoffman, M. Timm
来源期刊	ANTHROPOCENE
ISSN	2213-3054
出版年	2019
卷号	25
英文摘要	Most projections of climate change for southern Africa describe a hotter and drier future with catastrophic consequences for the environment and socio-ecological sustainability of the region. This study investigated whether evidence of the projections for the climate and vegetation of the subcontinent is already evident. Analysis of the climate record indicate that the historical trend of increasing temperature is consistent with future projections for the region. Rainfall, however, apparently has not changed significantly. Results from analysis of 1321 repeat historical photographs indicate broad trends in vegetation trajectories in the major biomes of southern Africa. The Savanna biome has experienced a rapid increase in woody plant at rates un-anticipated by the models. Contrary to early projections for the Succulent Karoo biome, biomass and cover have increased, largely in response to changes in land-use practices. Cover in the fire-adapted Fynbos biome has remained stable or increased over time with unanticipated expansion of forest species, particularly in localities protected from fire for long periods. The shrub-dominated Nama-karoo biome has increased in grass cover. Rather than contracting, as suggested in the early models, the Grassland biome has apparently expanded westwards into former Nama-karoo biome sites. The Savanna biome has experienced a rapid increase in woody plants at rates not anticipated by the models. The broad trends in historical trajectories illustrate how land-use management has influenced vegetation change in the past. They also provide a useful context for evaluating future changes and developing mitigation strategies for some of the worst impacts of climate change in the future. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Bioclimatic envelope models Climate change impacts Environmental change Sustainability Degradation Desertification
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	South Africa ; Scotland
开放获取类型	Green Submitted
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000468786500002
WOS关键词	MOUNTAIN NATIONAL-PARK ; LAND-USE ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; PAN EVAPORATION ; ATMOSPHERIC CO2 ; NAMAQUALAND ; DROUGHTS ; RANGE ; VULNERABILITY ; EXPANSION
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Geography, Physical ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Physical Geography ; Geology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/214201
作者单位	1.Univ Cape Town, Dept Biol Sci, Plant Conservat Unit, Private Bag X3, ZA-7701 Rondebosch, South Africa; 2.Univ Edinburgh, Sch Social & Polit Sci, Ctr African Studies, Chrystal Macmillan Bldg,15a George Sq, Edinburgh EH8 9LD, Midlothian, Scotland
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hoffman, M. Timm,Rohde, Rick F.,Gillson, Lindsey. Rethinking catastrophe? Historical trajectories and modelled future vegetation change in southern Africa[J],2019,25.
APA	Hoffman, M. Timm,Rohde, Rick F.,&Gillson, Lindsey.(2019).Rethinking catastrophe? Historical trajectories and modelled future vegetation change in southern Africa.ANTHROPOCENE,25.
MLA	Hoffman, M. Timm,et al."Rethinking catastrophe? Historical trajectories and modelled future vegetation change in southern Africa".ANTHROPOCENE 25(2019).