干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Simulating impacts of climate change on cotton yield and water requirement using RZWQM2

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DOI	10.1016/j.agwat.2019.05.030
	Simulating impacts of climate change on cotton yield and water requirement using RZWQM2
	Chen, Xiaoping 1,2,3,4; Qi, Zhiming 1,2,5; Gui, Dongwei 1,2; Gu, Zhe 6; Ma, Liwang 7; Zeng, Fanjiang1,2 ; Li, Lanhai 1
通讯作者	Qi, Zhiming
来源期刊	AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT
ISSN	0378-3774
EISSN	1873-2283
出版年	2019
卷号	222 页码:231-241
英文摘要	Assessing the potential impacts of climate change on cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) yield and water demand is crucial in allocating water resources. In this study, cotton yield and water requirement under future climate scenarios was evaluated in Qira oasis, China. Six general circulation models (GCMs), under moderate and high representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (4.5 and 8.5) and elevated CO2 (eCO(2)) concentration (218-502ppm), were used to project climate for near (2041-2060) and far future (2061-2080) periods. With current management practices, the impacts of climate change on cotton yield and water requirement were simulated using the Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM2), which was calibrated with experimental data (2007-2014) in a previous study. For the study region, the GCMs predicted an increase of 2.38 degrees C and 3.24 degrees C in temperature and 3.5% and 5.3% mm in precipitation during the growing seasons (April-October) for 2041-2060 and 2061-2080, respectively. For 2041-2060, seed cotton yield was projected to increase by 0.24Mg ha(-1) (5.6%) under RCP4.5 and 0.19Mg ha(-1) (4.5%) under RCP8.5 comparing to the baseline yield of 4.23Mg ha(-1); however, for 2061-2080, the model predicted a 0.32Mg ha -1 (7.6%) yield increase under RCP4.5 but a 0.28Mg ha(-1) (6.5%) decrease under RCP8.5. The increased cotton yield was mainly attributable to the fertilization effect of eCO(2) dominating the detrimental effects of shorter growing seasons (8.0-9.5 days). Alleviated low temperature stress also slightly promoted cotton yield. Averaged across the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, simulated cropping season water requirement for the 2041-2060 and 2061-2080 were 728mm and 706mm, respectively, an decrease by 7.5% and 10.3% relative to the present day baseline (786mm), respectively. This decrease was attributed to shorter growing seasons and eCO(2). These results suggest that the region's agricultural water crisis may be alleviated in the future.
英文关键词	Climate change GCMs RZWQM2 model Crop water requirement Seed cotton yield
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	Peoples R China ; Canada ; USA
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000477784200023
WOS关键词	CSM-CROPGRO-COTTON ; FUTURE CLIMATE ; ELEVATED CO2 ; ECOSYSTEM SERVICES ; BAYESIAN NETWORK ; TEMPERATURE ; GROWTH ; CHINA ; AGRICULTURE ; PHENOLOGY
WOS类目	Agronomy ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Agriculture ; Water Resources
来源机构	中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 ; 河海大学
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/214036
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, Xinjiang 830011, Peoples R China; 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, Cele Natl Stn Observat & Res Desert Grassland Eco, Xinjiang 848300, Peoples R China; 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, Key Lab Biogeog & Bioresource Arid Land, Xinjiang 830011, Peoples R China; 4.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China; 5.McGill Univ, Dept Bioresource Engn, Ste Anne De Bellevue, PQ, Canada; 6.Hohai Univ, Coll Agr Engn, 1 Xikang Rd, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 7.USDA ARS, Rangeland Resources & Syst Res Unit, Ft Collins, CO 80526 USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chen, Xiaoping,Qi, Zhiming,Gui, Dongwei,et al. Simulating impacts of climate change on cotton yield and water requirement using RZWQM2[J]. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所, 河海大学,2019,222:231-241.
APA	Chen, Xiaoping.,Qi, Zhiming.,Gui, Dongwei.,Gu, Zhe.,Ma, Liwang.,...&Li, Lanhai.(2019).Simulating impacts of climate change on cotton yield and water requirement using RZWQM2.AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT,222,231-241.
MLA	Chen, Xiaoping,et al."Simulating impacts of climate change on cotton yield and water requirement using RZWQM2".AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT 222(2019):231-241.