干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): The potential geographical distribution of Haloxylon across Central Asia under climate change in the 21st century

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DOI	10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.05.027
	The potential geographical distribution of Haloxylon across Central Asia under climate change in the 21st century
	Li, Jiangyue 1; Chang, Hong 2; Liu, Tong 3; Zhang, Chi 1,4
通讯作者	Zhang, Chi
来源期刊	AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY
ISSN	0168-1923
EISSN	1873-2240
出版年	2019
卷号	275 页码:243-254
英文摘要	Members of Haloxylon are unique key species in the deserts of Central Asia (including Soviet Central Asia (SCA) and Xinjiang, China (XJ)). The region is a hotspot of global warming, and the plants' habitats are threatened by climate change. By using normal-climate data and future climate projections from 17 general circulation models (GCMs), we herein simulate the present and future potential habitats of Haloxylon persicum (H. persicum) and Haloxylon ammodendron (H. ammodendron) in Central Asia using a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model that was developed based on 307 specimen records of Haloxylon vegetation. The MaxEnt model showed high accuracy, with an average training area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.93-0.95. Our analysis indicated that temperature and precipitation play equally important roles in shaping the spatial distribution of these desert shrubs. According to the model estimates, the current (based on 1961-1990 climate normals) potential habitats of H. persicum and H. ammodendron are 1.56 x 10(6) km(2) and 1.53 x 10(6) km(2), respectively, mostly (93.1% and 75%, respectively) distributed in SCA. Model projections based on two future climate scenarios, namely, the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios (representing stabilized radiative forcing at 4.5 W m(-2) and 8.5 W m(-2) by the end of the 21st century, respectively), predicted that the potential habitat of H. persicum will increase by 44% (RCP4.5) to 62% (RCP8.5) but that the potential habitat of H. ammodendron will decrease by 22% (RCP4.5) to 34% (RCP8.5) in the late-21st century. The potential habitats of Haloxylon vegetation will gradually be lost in XJ but will expand in southwestern Kazakhstan circa 2041-2060 and 2061-2080. Therefore, it is advisable to protect the habitats of Haloxylon species in XJ (esp. southern XJ), where strong warming in the future might impose severe stress, and establish ecological corridors in central Uzbekistan and southern Kazakhstan to facilitate Haloxylon redistribution, as the geographical centroid of the Haloxylon habitats is shifting northward and westward in Central Asia.
英文关键词	Potential geographic distribution MaxEnt model Haloxylon Climate change
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	Peoples R China
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000480376400021
WOS关键词	ECOLOGICAL WATER CONVEYANCE ; SPECIES DISTRIBUTIONS ; PREDICTING IMPACTS ; CARBON STOCK ; TARIM RIVER ; MAXENT ; PRECIPITATION ; VEGETATION ; UNCERTAINTIES ; ECOSYSTEMS
WOS类目	Agronomy ; Forestry ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Agriculture ; Forestry ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/213964
作者单位	1.Linyi Univ, Coll Resources & Environm, Shandong Prov Key Lab Water & Soil Conservat & En, Linyi 276000, Shandong, Peoples R China; 2.Sichuan Univ, Coll Life Sci, Chengdu 610000, Sichuan, Peoples R China; 3.Shihezi Univ, Coll Life Sci, Shihezi 832000, Peoples R China; 4.Cent Asia Chinese Acad Sci, Res Ctr Ecol & Environm, Urumqi 830011, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li, Jiangyue,Chang, Hong,Liu, Tong,et al. The potential geographical distribution of Haloxylon across Central Asia under climate change in the 21st century[J],2019,275:243-254.
APA	Li, Jiangyue,Chang, Hong,Liu, Tong,&Zhang, Chi.(2019).The potential geographical distribution of Haloxylon across Central Asia under climate change in the 21st century.AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY,275,243-254.
MLA	Li, Jiangyue,et al."The potential geographical distribution of Haloxylon across Central Asia under climate change in the 21st century".AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY 275(2019):243-254.