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DOI	10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.12.019
	Optimized sowing time windows mitigate climate risks for oats production under cool semi-arid growing conditions
	Zhang, Yue 1; Zhang, Lizhen 1; Yang, Ning 2; Huth, Neil 3; Wang, Enli 4; van der Werf, Wopke 5; Evers, Jochem B.5; Wang, Qi 1; Zhang, Dongsheng 1; Wang, Ruonan 1; Gao, Hui 6; Anten, Niels P. R.5
通讯作者	Zhang, Lizhen
来源期刊	AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY
ISSN	0168-1923
EISSN	1873-2240
出版年	2019
卷号	266 页码:184-197
英文摘要	Year to year variability in weather poses serious risks to crop production in the environmentally fragile agroecosystems of cool semi-arid areas, and future climate changes might further aggravate those risks. This study aims to quantify the contribution of altered sowing time windows to reduce climate risk for the production of oats (Avena saliva), a crop that is well adapted to short growing seasons and low rainfall. The APSIM-Oats model was calibrated and validated for phenology, above-ground dry matter and yield using data from field experiments with five sowing dates, conducted from 2009 to 2013 in Inner Mongolia, China. The model was used to determine yield trends and yield-limiting factors under rain-fed conditions using historical weather data. Changes in temperature had greater impact on crop production than changes in rainfall and the simulations indicated the importance of changed sowing windows to lengthen the growth duration and optimize water use. Delayed sowing of oats, 10 days later than current practice, ensured more secure temperature and rainfall conditions from emergence to flowering and substantially increased yields and decreased climate risk. Delayed sowing also reduced climate risk under two future climate scenarios, RCP4.5 (stabilize growth) and RCP8.5 (high greenhouse gas emission). We conclude that adaptation of sowing time of oats provides a practical strategy for enhancing yield and mitigating climate risk under climate change.
英文关键词	APSIM-Oats Water limited potential yield Climate change Cumulative probability Optimal sowing time window Yield gap
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	Peoples R China ; Australia ; Netherlands
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000458468200018
WOS关键词	NORTH CHINA PLAIN ; CROP PRODUCTION ; MAIZE YIELD ; WHEAT ; TEMPERATURE ; SYSTEMS ; MANAGEMENT ; IMPACTS ; CULTIVARS ; ADAPTATION
WOS类目	Agronomy ; Forestry ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Agriculture ; Forestry ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
来源机构	中国农业大学 ; Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/213939
作者单位	1.China Agr Univ, Coll Resources & Environm Sci, Yuanmingyuan West Rd 2, Beijing 100193, Peoples R China; 2.Huairou Meteorol Bur Beijing, Yingbin Mid Rd 31, Beijing 101400, Peoples R China; 3.CSIRO Agr & Food, POB 102, Toowoomba, Qld 4350, Australia; 4.CSIRO Agr & Food, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia; 5.Wageningen Univ, Ctr Crop Syst Anal CSA, Droevendaalsesteeg 1, NL-6708 PB Wageningen, Netherlands; 6.China Inst Water Resources & Hydropower Res, Beijing 100038, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Yue,Zhang, Lizhen,Yang, Ning,et al. Optimized sowing time windows mitigate climate risks for oats production under cool semi-arid growing conditions[J]. 中国农业大学, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation,2019,266:184-197.
APA	Zhang, Yue.,Zhang, Lizhen.,Yang, Ning.,Huth, Neil.,Wang, Enli.,...&Anten, Niels P. R..(2019).Optimized sowing time windows mitigate climate risks for oats production under cool semi-arid growing conditions.AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY,266,184-197.
MLA	Zhang, Yue,et al."Optimized sowing time windows mitigate climate risks for oats production under cool semi-arid growing conditions".AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY 266(2019):184-197.