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Due to the recent spread of forest die-off worldwide, concerns arise about the relative influence of specific climate parameters on tree growth decline in semi-arid environments, such as the Mediterranean mountain forests. As temperatures increase, drought may reduce tree productivity and survival across these forest ecosystems. Drought-induced tree growth decline can be interpreted as an early-warning signal of forest vulnerability. Here, we modeled the relationship between tree-ring width index (RWI) of beech populations in mountain forests of south-central Italy and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) derived from local weather stations. The aim of the research was to propose a procedure to determine the tipping point of drought severity triggering tree decline in beech forests. We focused on the cumulative water balance over the previous 1 month, which was particularly appropriate in relationship with the soil water conditions of these Mediterranean mountains. Under drier conditions, the correlation between RWI and SPEI was stronger, soil water supply (early fall of current year) and atmospheric evaporative demand (late spring of current year) being the dominant factors limiting tree growth of southern beech populations.