Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.3390/w10101458 |
A Multi-GCM Assessment of the Climate Change Impact on the Hydrology and Hydropower Potential of a Semi-Arid Basin (A Case Study of the Dez Dam Basin, Iran) | |
Mousavi, Roya Sadat; Ahmadizadeh, Mojtaba; Marofi, Safar | |
通讯作者 | Marofi, Safar |
来源期刊 | WATER
![]() |
ISSN | 2073-4441 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 10期号:10 |
英文摘要 | In this paper, the impact of climate change on the climate and discharge of the Dez Dam Basin and the hydropower potential of two hydropower plants (Bakhtiari and Dez) is investigated based on the downscaled outputs of six GCMs (General Circulation Models) and three SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) scenarios for the early, mid and late 21st century. Projections of all the scenarios and GCMs revealed a significant rise in temperature (up to 4.9 degrees C) and slight to moderate variation in precipitation (up to 18%). Outputs of the HBV hydrologic model, enforced by projected datasets, show a reduction of the annual flow by 33% under the climate change condition. Further, analyzing the induced changes in the inflow and hydropower generation potential of the Bakhtiari and Dez dams showed that both inflow and hydropower generation is significantly affected by climate change. For the Bakhtiari dam, this indicates a consistent reduction of inflow (up to 27%) and electricity generation (up to 32%). While, in the Dez dam case, the inflow is projected to decrease (up to 22%) and the corresponding hydropower is expected to slightly increase (up to 3%). This contrasting result for the Dez dam is assessed based on its reservoir and hydropower plant capacity, as well as other factors such as the timely releases to meet different demands and flow regime changes under climate change. The results show that the Bakhtiari reservoir and power plant will not meet the design-capacity outputs under the climate change condition as its large capacity cannot be fully utilized; while there is room for the further development of the Dez power plant. Comparing the results of the applied GCMs showed high discrepancies among the outputs of different models. |
英文关键词 | global warming statistical downscaling HBV model flow regime uncertainty |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Iran |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000451208400173 |
WOS关键词 | RIVER FLOW REGIMES ; WATER-RESOURCES ; TRENDS ; PRECIPITATION ; TEMPERATURE ; DISCHARGE ; VARIABILITY ; STREAMFLOW ; REGIONS |
WOS类目 | Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Water Resources |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/213637 |
作者单位 | Bu Ali Sina Univ, Dept Water Sci Engn, Hamadan 6517838695, Iran |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Mousavi, Roya Sadat,Ahmadizadeh, Mojtaba,Marofi, Safar. A Multi-GCM Assessment of the Climate Change Impact on the Hydrology and Hydropower Potential of a Semi-Arid Basin (A Case Study of the Dez Dam Basin, Iran)[J],2018,10(10). |
APA | Mousavi, Roya Sadat,Ahmadizadeh, Mojtaba,&Marofi, Safar.(2018).A Multi-GCM Assessment of the Climate Change Impact on the Hydrology and Hydropower Potential of a Semi-Arid Basin (A Case Study of the Dez Dam Basin, Iran).WATER,10(10). |
MLA | Mousavi, Roya Sadat,et al."A Multi-GCM Assessment of the Climate Change Impact on the Hydrology and Hydropower Potential of a Semi-Arid Basin (A Case Study of the Dez Dam Basin, Iran)".WATER 10.10(2018). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。