干旱区生态环境知识资源中心

The study of water resource carrying capacity (WRCC) is significant for rational water resource utilization and promotion of the coordinated development of a regional economy, society, and ecology, especially in arid regions. In this paper, using different scenarios, a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model based on water resource allocation is constructed to obtain the WRCC in the middle reaches of the Heihe River. The results show that the current development of water resources has a certain scale, and the carrying capacity is relatively low. Compared with the current water resource scheme, various scenario schemes have higher evaluation indexes. Among the schemes, scheme 7 is the optimal plan for the recent planning year, and scheme 13 is the best for the long-term planning year. Based on a subsystems analysis, the social subsystem has the highest score, which is followed by the economic subsystem, water resource subsystem, and ecological subsystem, and the evaluation index of the economic subsystem shows the largest increase. The main factors affecting the WRCC are the water-saving level and crop irrigation quota. Therefore, the WRCC should be improved by raising the level of agricultural water use, restricting the irrigation area, and adjusting the local industrial structure.