干旱区生态环境知识资源中心

With population growth and water scarcity, efficient crop production has drawn attention worldwide. In the Hexi Corridor, the largest production base of maize seed in China, it is desired to develop efficient irrigation strategies for seed maize. Considering the double criteria of yield and seed quality, an integrated water-saving and quality-guarantee uncertain programming approach (IWQUP) was developed in this study to help with agricultural sustainable development. The IWQUP combined deficit irrigation theory, soil-water balance, and multiple uncertainties. The water-flowering model (WFM) and kernel weight prediction model with water production functions were used to reflect the relationship among water consumption, crop yield, and seed quality. Meanwhile, to deal with the widespread existence of uncertainties in nature and the decision-making process, interval programming and fuzzy programming were integrated within the framework of IWQUP, along with the use of the genetic algorithm and Monte Carlo simulation. The results showed that when the climatic condition is moist, decision-makers may use a low tolerance level in order to reduce the water waste, enhance the water use efficiency, and guarantee a relatively high seed quality. When the climate is harsh, a high tolerance level to water use constraints is recommended in order to guarantee yield. In addition, optimistic decision-makers could choose a relatively high tolerance level, but in moist years they should be careful in order to avoid water waste. The established model was compared with three other models to represent its practicability for offering decision-makers various references under different scenarios.