Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.3390/w10020145 |
Improving Stochastic Modelling of Daily Rainfall Using the ENSO Index: Model Development and Application in Chile | |
Urdiales, Diego1,2; Meza, Francisco1,3,4; Gironas, Jorge1,5,6,7; Gilabert, Horacio1,3 | |
通讯作者 | Urdiales, Diego |
来源期刊 | WATER
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ISSN | 2073-4441 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 10期号:2 |
英文摘要 | Stochastic weather simulation, or weather generators (WGs), have gained a wide acceptance and been used for a variety of purposes, including climate change studies and the evaluation of climate variability and uncertainty effects. The two major challenges in WGs are improving the estimation of interannual variability and reducing overdispersion in the synthetic series of simulated weather. The objective of this work is to develop a WG model of daily rainfall, incorporating a covariable that accounts for interannual variability, and apply it in three climate regions (arid, Mediterranean, and temperate) of Chile. Precipitation occurrence was modeled using a two-stage, first-order Markov chain, whose parameters are fitted with a generalized lineal model (GLM) using a logistic function. This function considers monthly values of the observed Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies of the Region 3.4 of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO index) as a covariable. Precipitation intensity was simulated with a mixed exponential distribution, fitted using a maximum likelihood approach. The stochastic simulation shows that the application of the approach to Mediterranean and arid climates largely eliminates the overdispersion problem, resulting in a much improved interannual variability in the simulated values. |
英文关键词 | stochastic simulation ENSO index generalized lineal model mixed exponential distribution daily precipitation Chile |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Chile ; Ecuador |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000426775500055 |
WOS关键词 | GENERALIZED LINEAR-MODELS ; WEATHER GENERATOR ; DAILY PRECIPITATION ; PROBABILITY-DISTRIBUTION ; LOW-FREQUENCY ; LARS-WG ; AAFC-WG ; CLIMATE ; VARIABILITY ; SIMULATION |
WOS类目 | Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Water Resources |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/213570 |
作者单位 | 1.Pontificia Univ Catolica Chile, Ctr Interdisciplinario Cambio Global, Ave Vicuna Mackenna 4860, Santiago 7820436, Chile; 2.Univ Cuenca, Dept Recursos Hidr & Ciencias Ambientales, Cuenca 010150, Ecuador; 3.Pontificia Univ Catolica Chile, Dept Ecosistemas & Medio Ambiente, Ave Vicuna Mackenna 4860, Santiago 7820436, Chile; 4.Aquasec IAI Ctr Excellence Water Secur, Santiago 7820436, Chile; 5.CONICYT FONDAP 15110020, Ctr Desarrollo Urbano Sustentable, Ave Vicuna Mackenna 4860, Santiago 7820436, Chile; 6.CONICYT FONDAP 15110017, Ctr Invest Gest Integrada Desastres Nat, Ave Vicuna Mackenna 4860, Santiago 7820436, Chile; 7.Pontificia Univ Catolica Chile, Dept Ingn Hidraul & Ambiental, Santiago 7820436, Chile |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Urdiales, Diego,Meza, Francisco,Gironas, Jorge,et al. Improving Stochastic Modelling of Daily Rainfall Using the ENSO Index: Model Development and Application in Chile[J],2018,10(2). |
APA | Urdiales, Diego,Meza, Francisco,Gironas, Jorge,&Gilabert, Horacio.(2018).Improving Stochastic Modelling of Daily Rainfall Using the ENSO Index: Model Development and Application in Chile.WATER,10(2). |
MLA | Urdiales, Diego,et al."Improving Stochastic Modelling of Daily Rainfall Using the ENSO Index: Model Development and Application in Chile".WATER 10.2(2018). |
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