Arid
DOI10.3390/w10020145
Improving Stochastic Modelling of Daily Rainfall Using the ENSO Index: Model Development and Application in Chile
Urdiales, Diego1,2; Meza, Francisco1,3,4; Gironas, Jorge1,5,6,7; Gilabert, Horacio1,3
通讯作者Urdiales, Diego
来源期刊WATER
ISSN2073-4441
出版年2018
卷号10期号:2
英文摘要

Stochastic weather simulation, or weather generators (WGs), have gained a wide acceptance and been used for a variety of purposes, including climate change studies and the evaluation of climate variability and uncertainty effects. The two major challenges in WGs are improving the estimation of interannual variability and reducing overdispersion in the synthetic series of simulated weather. The objective of this work is to develop a WG model of daily rainfall, incorporating a covariable that accounts for interannual variability, and apply it in three climate regions (arid, Mediterranean, and temperate) of Chile. Precipitation occurrence was modeled using a two-stage, first-order Markov chain, whose parameters are fitted with a generalized lineal model (GLM) using a logistic function. This function considers monthly values of the observed Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies of the Region 3.4 of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO index) as a covariable. Precipitation intensity was simulated with a mixed exponential distribution, fitted using a maximum likelihood approach. The stochastic simulation shows that the application of the approach to Mediterranean and arid climates largely eliminates the overdispersion problem, resulting in a much improved interannual variability in the simulated values.


英文关键词stochastic simulation ENSO index generalized lineal model mixed exponential distribution daily precipitation Chile
类型Article
语种英语
国家Chile ; Ecuador
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000426775500055
WOS关键词GENERALIZED LINEAR-MODELS ; WEATHER GENERATOR ; DAILY PRECIPITATION ; PROBABILITY-DISTRIBUTION ; LOW-FREQUENCY ; LARS-WG ; AAFC-WG ; CLIMATE ; VARIABILITY ; SIMULATION
WOS类目Water Resources
WOS研究方向Water Resources
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/213570
作者单位1.Pontificia Univ Catolica Chile, Ctr Interdisciplinario Cambio Global, Ave Vicuna Mackenna 4860, Santiago 7820436, Chile;
2.Univ Cuenca, Dept Recursos Hidr & Ciencias Ambientales, Cuenca 010150, Ecuador;
3.Pontificia Univ Catolica Chile, Dept Ecosistemas & Medio Ambiente, Ave Vicuna Mackenna 4860, Santiago 7820436, Chile;
4.Aquasec IAI Ctr Excellence Water Secur, Santiago 7820436, Chile;
5.CONICYT FONDAP 15110020, Ctr Desarrollo Urbano Sustentable, Ave Vicuna Mackenna 4860, Santiago 7820436, Chile;
6.CONICYT FONDAP 15110017, Ctr Invest Gest Integrada Desastres Nat, Ave Vicuna Mackenna 4860, Santiago 7820436, Chile;
7.Pontificia Univ Catolica Chile, Dept Ingn Hidraul & Ambiental, Santiago 7820436, Chile
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Urdiales, Diego,Meza, Francisco,Gironas, Jorge,et al. Improving Stochastic Modelling of Daily Rainfall Using the ENSO Index: Model Development and Application in Chile[J],2018,10(2).
APA Urdiales, Diego,Meza, Francisco,Gironas, Jorge,&Gilabert, Horacio.(2018).Improving Stochastic Modelling of Daily Rainfall Using the ENSO Index: Model Development and Application in Chile.WATER,10(2).
MLA Urdiales, Diego,et al."Improving Stochastic Modelling of Daily Rainfall Using the ENSO Index: Model Development and Application in Chile".WATER 10.2(2018).
条目包含的文件
条目无相关文件。
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Urdiales, Diego]的文章
[Meza, Francisco]的文章
[Gironas, Jorge]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Urdiales, Diego]的文章
[Meza, Francisco]的文章
[Gironas, Jorge]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Urdiales, Diego]的文章
[Meza, Francisco]的文章
[Gironas, Jorge]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。