Arid
DOI10.1007/s00704-016-2008-2
Climate change uncertainty and risk assessment in Iran during twenty-first century: evapotranspiration and green water deficit analysis
Karandish, Fatemeh; Mousavi, Seyed-Saeed
通讯作者Karandish, Fatemeh
来源期刊THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN0177-798X
EISSN1434-4483
出版年2018
卷号131期号:1-2页码:777-791
英文摘要

For a 120-year period, the projected effects of climate change on annual, seasonal, and monthly potential evapotranspiration (ETo) and green water deficit (GWD) were analyzed involving the associated uncertainties for five climatic zones of Iran. Analysis was carried out using data obtained from 15 general circulation models (GCMs) under three SRES scenarios of A1B, A2, and B1 which were downscaled using LARS-WG for 52 synoptic stations up to 2100. The majority of GCMs as well as the median of the ensemble for each scenario project a positive change in both ETo and GWD. A total of 5.8-19.8 % increase in annual ETo, drier than normal wet seasons, as well as 2.3-56.4 % increase in ETo during December-March period well represent a probable increase in the hydrological water requirement in Iran under global warming. Regarding GWD, the country will experience more arid years requiring 113.7 x 10(3)-576.8 x 10(3) Mm(3) more water to supply annual atmospheric water demand. Semi-arid and Mediterranean regions, principal agricultural producer areas of Iran, will be the most vulnerable part of the country due to 1-38.6 % increase in annual GWD under climate change. In addition, water scarcity for irrigated agriculture will enhance in all climatic zones due to 0.9-41 % increase GWD in June-August. However, rain-fed agriculture might be less affected in the hyper-humid and Mediterranean regions because of 1.1-105.3 % reduction in GWD during wet season. Nevertheless, uncertainty analysis revealed that given results for monthly timescale as well as those for times and regions with lower ETo will be the most uncertain. Based on the results, suitable adaptation solutions are highly required to be undertaken to relieve the extra pressure on the decreased blue water resources in the future.


类型Article
语种英语
国家Iran
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000419885200057
WOS关键词AVAILABILITY ; TRENDS ; PRECIPITATION ; TEMPERATURE ; PATTERN
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/213441
作者单位Univ Zabol, Water Engn Dept, Zabol, Iran
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Karandish, Fatemeh,Mousavi, Seyed-Saeed. Climate change uncertainty and risk assessment in Iran during twenty-first century: evapotranspiration and green water deficit analysis[J],2018,131(1-2):777-791.
APA Karandish, Fatemeh,&Mousavi, Seyed-Saeed.(2018).Climate change uncertainty and risk assessment in Iran during twenty-first century: evapotranspiration and green water deficit analysis.THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY,131(1-2),777-791.
MLA Karandish, Fatemeh,et al."Climate change uncertainty and risk assessment in Iran during twenty-first century: evapotranspiration and green water deficit analysis".THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY 131.1-2(2018):777-791.
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