Arid
DOI10.1038/s41598-018-25969-6
Changing flood frequencies under opposing late Pleistocene eastern Mediterranean climates
Ben Dor, Yoav1; Armon, Moshe1; Ahlborn, Marieke2; Morin, Efrat1; Erel, Yigal1; Brauer, Achim2; Schwab, Markus Julius2; Tjallingii, Rik2; Enzel, Yehouda1
通讯作者Ben Dor, Yoav
来源期刊SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
ISSN2045-2322
出版年2018
卷号8
英文摘要

Floods comprise a dominant hydroclimatic phenomenon in aridlands with significant implications for humans, infrastructure, and landscape evolution worldwide. The study of short-term hydroclimatic variability, such as floods, and its forecasting for episodes of changing climate therefore poses a dominant challenge for the scientific community, and predominantly relies on modeling. Testing the capabilities of climate models to properly describe past and forecast future short-term hydroclimatic phenomena such as floods requires verification against suitable geological archives. However, determining flood frequency during changing climate is rarely achieved, because modern and paleoflood records, especially in arid regions, are often too short or discontinuous. Thus, coeval independent climate reconstructions and paleoflood records are required to further understand the impact of climate change on flood generation. Dead Sea lake levels reflect the mean centennial-millennial hydrological budget in the eastern Mediterranean. In contrast, floods in the large watersheds draining directly into the Dead Sea, are linked to short-term synoptic circulation patterns reflecting hydroclimatic variability. These two very different records are combined in this study to resolve flood frequency during opposing mean climates. Two 700-year-long, seasonally-resolved flood time series constructed from late Pleistocene Dead Sea varved sediments, coeval with significant Dead Sea lake level variations are reported. These series demonstrate that episodes of rising lake levels are characterized by higher frequency of floods, shorter intervals between years of multiple floods, and asignificantly larger number of years that experienced multiple floods. In addition, floods cluster into intervals of intense flooding, characterized by 75% and 20% increased frequency above their respective background frequencies during rising and falling lake-levels, respectively. Mean centennial precipitation in the eastern Mediterranean is therefore coupled with drastic changes in flood frequencies. These drastic changes in flood frequencies are linked to changes in the track, depth, and frequency of midlatitude eastern Mediterranean cyclones, determining mean climatology resulting in wetter and drier regional climatic episodes.


类型Article
语种英语
国家Israel ; Germany
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000433547600006
WOS关键词LAST GLACIAL MAXIMUM ; DAILY SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS ; MICRO-FACIES ANALYSES ; DEAD-SEA SEDIMENTS ; LAKE LISAN ; MIDDLE-EAST ; RED-SEA ; TROPICAL PLUMES ; SOUTHERN LEVANT ; ISRAEL
WOS类目Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向Science & Technology - Other Topics
来源机构Hebrew University of Jerusalem
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/213074
作者单位1.Hebrew Univ Jerusalem, Fredy & Nadine Herrmann Inst Earth Sci, Jerusalem, Israel;
2.GFZ German Res Ctr Geosci, Sect Climate Dynam & Landscape Evolut 5 2, Potsdam, Germany
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Ben Dor, Yoav,Armon, Moshe,Ahlborn, Marieke,et al. Changing flood frequencies under opposing late Pleistocene eastern Mediterranean climates[J]. Hebrew University of Jerusalem,2018,8.
APA Ben Dor, Yoav.,Armon, Moshe.,Ahlborn, Marieke.,Morin, Efrat.,Erel, Yigal.,...&Enzel, Yehouda.(2018).Changing flood frequencies under opposing late Pleistocene eastern Mediterranean climates.SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,8.
MLA Ben Dor, Yoav,et al."Changing flood frequencies under opposing late Pleistocene eastern Mediterranean climates".SCIENTIFIC REPORTS 8(2018).
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