Arid
DOI10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.253
Projections of actual evapotranspiration under the 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C global warming scenarios in sandy areas in northern China
Ma, Xiaofei1,2; Zhao, Chengyi1,3; Tao, Hui1; Zhu, Jianting4; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.3
通讯作者Zhao, Chengyi
来源期刊SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
ISSN0048-9697
EISSN1879-1026
出版年2018
卷号645页码:1496-1508
英文摘要

Actual evapotranspiration (ETa) is an essential component of Earth’s global energy balance and water cycle. The Paris Agreement aspires to limit global mean surface warming to <2 degrees C and no 1.5 degrees C relative to preindustrial levels. However, it is uncertain how this global level will impact the shifts in the extents of sandy areas caused by global desertification. Using Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) datasets and advection-aridity models, we investigated the spatiotemporal features of ETa in sandy areas in northern China under global warming scenarios of 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C. The four climate models indicated significant increases in ETa in arid areas across northwestern China. Over time, the ETa value under only the representative concentration pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) emission scenario increased towards a plateau and significantly increased in the other three emission scenarios (P < 0.01) under global warming of 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C. In terms of the spatial variations, ETa showed an increasing trend in all seasons except winter. The maximum ETa was 84.61 mm, and high values were mainly located in the southeast of the study area. Precipitation and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) showed good correlations with ETa in the sandy areas in northern China. The sandy areas in northern China showed decreasing trends (0.45 km(2)/a) from 1980 to 2015. Under global warming of 2.0 degrees C (2040-2059) relative to that of 1.5 degrees C (2020-2039), the area of sandy land will increase at a rate of 27.04 km(2) per decade (P < 0.01); after this period, the sandy land area in northern China may gradually stabilize, with a trend of 0.02 km(2)/a (2047-2100). Early efforts to achieve the 1.5 degrees C temperature goal could therefore markedly reduce the likelihood that large regions will face substantial global desertification and the related impacts. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.


英文关键词Actual evapotranspiration Global warming Advection-aridity model Sandy land shifting Desertification
类型Article
语种英语
国家Peoples R China ; USA
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000445164200146
WOS关键词LAND-USE CHANGE ; TARIM RIVER-BASIN ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; REGIONAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; COMPLEMENTARY RELATIONSHIP ; LOESS PLATEAU ; COMBATING DESERTIFICATION ; BINDING VEGETATION ; WATER-RESOURCES
WOS类目Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology
来源机构中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 ; 南京信息工程大学
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/213002
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, State Key Lab Desert & Oasis Ecol, Urumqi 830011, Peoples R China;
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China;
3.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;
4.Univ Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82071 USA
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GB/T 7714
Ma, Xiaofei,Zhao, Chengyi,Tao, Hui,et al. Projections of actual evapotranspiration under the 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C global warming scenarios in sandy areas in northern China[J]. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所, 南京信息工程大学,2018,645:1496-1508.
APA Ma, Xiaofei,Zhao, Chengyi,Tao, Hui,Zhu, Jianting,&Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W..(2018).Projections of actual evapotranspiration under the 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C global warming scenarios in sandy areas in northern China.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,645,1496-1508.
MLA Ma, Xiaofei,et al."Projections of actual evapotranspiration under the 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C global warming scenarios in sandy areas in northern China".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 645(2018):1496-1508.
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