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In tropical dry environments rainfall periodicity may affect demographic parameters, resulting in fluctuations in bird abundance. We used capture-recapture data for the Grey Pileated Finch from a Neotropical dry forest to evaluate the hypothesis that intra- and inter-annual survival, individuals entrance and population abundance, are related to local rainfall. Sampling occurred across 3 years, with individuals captured, tagged and evaluated for age and presence of brood patch every 14 days. Using the POPAN formulation, we generated demographic models to evaluate study population temporal dynamics. Best-fit models indicated a low apparent annual survival in the first year (16%) compared to other years (between 47 and 62%), with this low value associated with an extreme drought. The abundance of juveniles at each capture occasion was significantly dependent on the accumulated precipitation in the previous 14 days, and the juvenile covariate was a strong predictor of the intra-annual entrance probability (natality). Individuals entrance during the reproductive period corresponded to 53, 52 and 75% of total ingress for each year, respectively. The trend in sampled population size indicated positive exponential growth (N (initial) = 50, N (last) = 600), with intra-annual fluctuations becoming progressively more intense. Low survival was relevant during population decline at study onset, while at study end intense Individuals entrance promoted rapid population growth. Thus, the indirect effects of rainfall and the combined effect of two demographic rates operated synergistically on the immediate population abundance of Grey Pileated Finch, an abundant bird in a Neotropical dry forest.