干旱区生态环境知识资源中心

Cultivated oases play an important role in supporting human civilization in arid regions. Few quantitative analyses have been conducted on the influence of natural disturbances and human interventions on this fragile system over a long timescale. This paper presents an empirical study to investigate the quantitative relationship between cultivated oasis evolution and a set of natural and human factors in Heihe River Basin (HRB) over a timeframe of approximately 2,000years (206BC-1949AD). Multiple data sources, including documentary records, historical atlas reconstruction data, and published papers, were used. Stepwise multiple linear regression analysis was adopted to quantify any significant contributions of the selected variables. The results showed that cultivated oasis in the HRB had experienced substantial fluctuations. Population size, agricultural policies, military clashes, and grain yield per unit area were 4 major human related factors determining historical cultivated oasis development, while flood was the only significant natural factor. In combination of similar studies in recent decades, this study shows that the dynamics of oasis development and its transition is important for determination of the sustainable size of a cultivated oasis in the HRB.