Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.1007/s12205-017-0726-3 |
Seasonal Forecasting of Rainfall and Runoff Volumes in Riyadh Region, KSA | |
Fouli, Hesham1,2; Fouli, Rabie1,3; Bashir, Bashar1,2; Loni, Oumar A.1,4 | |
通讯作者 | Fouli, Hesham |
来源期刊 | KSCE JOURNAL OF CIVIL ENGINEERING
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ISSN | 1226-7988 |
EISSN | 1976-3808 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 22期号:7页码:2637-2647 |
英文摘要 | Analyses of Total Quarterly Rainfall (TQR) depth time series (1964-2014) at four gauges surrounding one potential rainwater harvesting site in this region show strong temporal and spatial variability. Using Box-Jenkins Methodology, three best-fit seasonal ARIMA models for 10-year predictions of TQR were selected; among more than 20 models, based on criteria of minimum values of variance, AIC and SBC. Comparisons between the forecasted and the actual TQR show good agreement. Data analyses show that spring records have the heaviest rainfall. Accuracy assessment results of the models indicate that for the most favorable model 58% of the residuals are within +/- 10 mm, and 74% are within +/- 20 mm. Making use of these results, it was possible to obtain seasonal predictions of runoff volumes for water harvesting at the potential site. The results indicate that the largest runoff volumes are expected to occur during the springs of 2016, 2019 and 2022 with an estimate of approximately 3.764 Mm(3). Such results are useful for the design and maintenance of the storage facilities of the harvested water. |
英文关键词 | arid regions ARIMA rainfall time series analyses water harvesting |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Saudi Arabia |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000436440900050 |
WOS关键词 | TIME-SERIES |
WOS类目 | Engineering, Civil |
WOS研究方向 | Engineering |
来源机构 | King Saud University |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/211455 |
作者单位 | 1.King Saud Univ, Chair Prince Sultan Bin Abdulaziz Int Prize Water, Prince Sultan Inst Environm Water & Desert Res, POB 2454, Riyadh 11451, Saudi Arabia; 2.King Saud Univ, Dept Civil Engn, POB 800, Riyadh 11421, Saudi Arabia; 3.WMO Environm & Meteorol Experta, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia; 4.King Abdulaziz City Sci & Technol, POB 6086, Riyadh 11442, Saudi Arabia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Fouli, Hesham,Fouli, Rabie,Bashir, Bashar,et al. Seasonal Forecasting of Rainfall and Runoff Volumes in Riyadh Region, KSA[J]. King Saud University,2018,22(7):2637-2647. |
APA | Fouli, Hesham,Fouli, Rabie,Bashir, Bashar,&Loni, Oumar A..(2018).Seasonal Forecasting of Rainfall and Runoff Volumes in Riyadh Region, KSA.KSCE JOURNAL OF CIVIL ENGINEERING,22(7),2637-2647. |
MLA | Fouli, Hesham,et al."Seasonal Forecasting of Rainfall and Runoff Volumes in Riyadh Region, KSA".KSCE JOURNAL OF CIVIL ENGINEERING 22.7(2018):2637-2647. |
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