Arid
DOI10.1007/s12205-017-0726-3
Seasonal Forecasting of Rainfall and Runoff Volumes in Riyadh Region, KSA
Fouli, Hesham1,2; Fouli, Rabie1,3; Bashir, Bashar1,2; Loni, Oumar A.1,4
通讯作者Fouli, Hesham
来源期刊KSCE JOURNAL OF CIVIL ENGINEERING
ISSN1226-7988
EISSN1976-3808
出版年2018
卷号22期号:7页码:2637-2647
英文摘要

Analyses of Total Quarterly Rainfall (TQR) depth time series (1964-2014) at four gauges surrounding one potential rainwater harvesting site in this region show strong temporal and spatial variability. Using Box-Jenkins Methodology, three best-fit seasonal ARIMA models for 10-year predictions of TQR were selected; among more than 20 models, based on criteria of minimum values of variance, AIC and SBC. Comparisons between the forecasted and the actual TQR show good agreement. Data analyses show that spring records have the heaviest rainfall. Accuracy assessment results of the models indicate that for the most favorable model 58% of the residuals are within +/- 10 mm, and 74% are within +/- 20 mm. Making use of these results, it was possible to obtain seasonal predictions of runoff volumes for water harvesting at the potential site. The results indicate that the largest runoff volumes are expected to occur during the springs of 2016, 2019 and 2022 with an estimate of approximately 3.764 Mm(3). Such results are useful for the design and maintenance of the storage facilities of the harvested water.


英文关键词arid regions ARIMA rainfall time series analyses water harvesting
类型Article
语种英语
国家Saudi Arabia
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000436440900050
WOS关键词TIME-SERIES
WOS类目Engineering, Civil
WOS研究方向Engineering
来源机构King Saud University
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/211455
作者单位1.King Saud Univ, Chair Prince Sultan Bin Abdulaziz Int Prize Water, Prince Sultan Inst Environm Water & Desert Res, POB 2454, Riyadh 11451, Saudi Arabia;
2.King Saud Univ, Dept Civil Engn, POB 800, Riyadh 11421, Saudi Arabia;
3.WMO Environm & Meteorol Experta, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia;
4.King Abdulaziz City Sci & Technol, POB 6086, Riyadh 11442, Saudi Arabia
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Fouli, Hesham,Fouli, Rabie,Bashir, Bashar,et al. Seasonal Forecasting of Rainfall and Runoff Volumes in Riyadh Region, KSA[J]. King Saud University,2018,22(7):2637-2647.
APA Fouli, Hesham,Fouli, Rabie,Bashir, Bashar,&Loni, Oumar A..(2018).Seasonal Forecasting of Rainfall and Runoff Volumes in Riyadh Region, KSA.KSCE JOURNAL OF CIVIL ENGINEERING,22(7),2637-2647.
MLA Fouli, Hesham,et al."Seasonal Forecasting of Rainfall and Runoff Volumes in Riyadh Region, KSA".KSCE JOURNAL OF CIVIL ENGINEERING 22.7(2018):2637-2647.
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