Arid
DOI10.1002/jwmg.21543
Establishing Bayesian Priors for Natural Mortality Rate in Carnivore Populations
Porteus, Tom A.1,2; Reynolds, Jonathan C.2; Mcallister, Murdoch K.3
通讯作者Porteus, Tom A.
来源期刊JOURNAL OF WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT
ISSN0022-541X
EISSN1937-2817
出版年2018
卷号82期号:8页码:1645-1657
英文摘要

In managed carnivore populations, natural mortality rate (d) is difficult to estimate directly, and context-specific data are typically weakly informative about it. Nevertheless, natural mortality is potentially an important component of total mortality, particularly if additive to harvest or culling mortality. The natural mortality rate exhibits allometric or life-history relationships that are invariant across diverse taxonomic groups, and it is valuable to derive estimates on this basis to serve as priors in later Bayesian models, steering parameter uncertainty towards biologically plausible values, and leading to more reliable model predictions and improved management recommendations. We used Bayesian hierarchical modeling and data from the literature to establish informative priors for instantaneous d as predictions scaled from body mass or maximum age. Posterior mean estimates of the scaling parameters of these models were -0.27 (body mass) and -1.07 (maximum age), respectively, conforming to expected values of -0.25 and -1.00. Direct estimates of d from published studies of coyotes (Canis latrans) in southern Texas, fisher (Pekania pennanti) in Sierra Nevada, and slender mongoose (Galerella sanguinea) in the Kalahari Desert were within the credible intervals of predictions for d using both models. We also compared survivorship curves based on model predictions with observed survivorship of red fox (Vulpes vulpes) from a variety of studies in Britain, among which intensity of culling varied markedly. Across all species, there was better support for the d prediction from maximum age, than from body mass. We thus recommend use of maximum age data to establish informative priors for d where possible. Posterior median predictions of d from maximum age were within 0.01-0.14/year of the direct estimates, whereas the differences between direct estimates and predictions from body mass were 0.04-0.27/year. Sensitivity analysis showed trivial effects of between-sex differences in body mass, and age-specific mortality, on predictions of d. Differences between body mass and maximum age model predictions were attributed to the relative importance of intrinsic and extrinsic mortality factors in the 2 approaches (i.e., maximum age predictions allowed for extrinsic factors to affect predicted mortality). (C) 2018 The Wildlife Society.


英文关键词allometry Bayesian hierarchical model carnivore populations life-history invariants maximum age meta-analytic methods natural mortality rate prior information
类型Article
语种英语
国家Canada ; England
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000448087300011
WOS关键词FOXES VULPES-VULPES ; RED FOXES ; COYOTE POPULATION ; PRIOR INFORMATION ; BREEDING SUCCESS ; STOCK ASSESSMENT ; ANNUAL SURVIVAL ; BODY-SIZE ; MODEL ; MAMMALS
WOS类目Ecology ; Zoology
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Zoology
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/211438
作者单位1.Univ British Columbia, Dept Zool, 6270 Univ Blvd, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada;
2.Game & Wildlife Conservat Trust, Burgate Manor SP6 1EF, Fordingbridge, England;
3.Univ British Columbia, Inst Oceans & Fisheries, AERL, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Porteus, Tom A.,Reynolds, Jonathan C.,Mcallister, Murdoch K.. Establishing Bayesian Priors for Natural Mortality Rate in Carnivore Populations[J],2018,82(8):1645-1657.
APA Porteus, Tom A.,Reynolds, Jonathan C.,&Mcallister, Murdoch K..(2018).Establishing Bayesian Priors for Natural Mortality Rate in Carnivore Populations.JOURNAL OF WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT,82(8),1645-1657.
MLA Porteus, Tom A.,et al."Establishing Bayesian Priors for Natural Mortality Rate in Carnivore Populations".JOURNAL OF WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT 82.8(2018):1645-1657.
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