Arid
DOI10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0843.1
Human Contribution to the Increasing Summer Precipitation in Central Asia from 1961 to 2013
Peng, Dongdong1,2,3; Zhou, Tianjun1,3; Zhang, Lixia1,4; Wu, Bo1
通讯作者Zhou, Tianjun
来源期刊JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
ISSN0894-8755
EISSN1520-0442
出版年2018
卷号31期号:19页码:8005-8021
英文摘要

The ecosystem and societal development over arid Central Asia, the core connecting region of the Silk Road Economic Belt, are highly sensitive to climate change. The results derived from multiobservational datasets show that summer precipitation over Central Asia has significantly increased by 20.78% from 1961 to 2013. It remains unclear whether anthropogenic forcing has contributed to the summer wetting trend or not. In this study, the corresponding physical processes and contributions of anthropogenic forcing are investigated by comparing reanalysis and experiments of the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5.1 (CAM5.1), from the CLIVAR Climate of the Twentieth Century Plus (C20C+) Project. The observed wetting trend is well reproduced in the simulation driven by all radiative forcings (CAM5-All), but poorly reproduced in the simulation with natural forcings only (CAM5-Nat), confirming the important role of human contribution in the observed wetting trend. Moisture budget analysis shows that the observed wetting trend is dominated by the increasing vertical moisture advection term and results from enhanced vertical motion over nearly all of Central Asia. The observed contributions of moisture budget components to the wetting trend are only captured by CAM5-All experiments. The dynamic contribution is determined by the warm advection anomalies in association with a human-induced meridional uneven warm pattern. Human-induced warming increases the specific humidity over all of Central Asia, increasing (decreasing) the precipitation over the climatological ascent (descent) region in eastern (western) Central Asia.


英文关键词Precipitation Climate change Moisture moisture budget Climate models Trends
类型Article
语种英语
国家Peoples R China
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000442564700001
WOS关键词CLIMATE-CHANGE ; LAND PRECIPITATION ; NORTHWEST CHINA ; HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE ; ATTRIBUTION ; RAINFALL ; MONSOON ; TEMPERATURE ; MECHANISMS ; RESPONSES
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
来源机构中国科学院大气物理研究所 ; 南京信息工程大学
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/210773
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, State Key Lab Numer Modeling Atmospher Sci & Geop, Beijing, Peoples R China;
2.China Meteorol Adm, Inst Trop & Marine Meteorol, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China;
3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China;
4.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Peng, Dongdong,Zhou, Tianjun,Zhang, Lixia,et al. Human Contribution to the Increasing Summer Precipitation in Central Asia from 1961 to 2013[J]. 中国科学院大气物理研究所, 南京信息工程大学,2018,31(19):8005-8021.
APA Peng, Dongdong,Zhou, Tianjun,Zhang, Lixia,&Wu, Bo.(2018).Human Contribution to the Increasing Summer Precipitation in Central Asia from 1961 to 2013.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(19),8005-8021.
MLA Peng, Dongdong,et al."Human Contribution to the Increasing Summer Precipitation in Central Asia from 1961 to 2013".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.19(2018):8005-8021.
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