Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0843.1 |
Human Contribution to the Increasing Summer Precipitation in Central Asia from 1961 to 2013 | |
Peng, Dongdong1,2,3; Zhou, Tianjun1,3; Zhang, Lixia1,4; Wu, Bo1 | |
通讯作者 | Zhou, Tianjun |
来源期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
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ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 31期号:19页码:8005-8021 |
英文摘要 | The ecosystem and societal development over arid Central Asia, the core connecting region of the Silk Road Economic Belt, are highly sensitive to climate change. The results derived from multiobservational datasets show that summer precipitation over Central Asia has significantly increased by 20.78% from 1961 to 2013. It remains unclear whether anthropogenic forcing has contributed to the summer wetting trend or not. In this study, the corresponding physical processes and contributions of anthropogenic forcing are investigated by comparing reanalysis and experiments of the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5.1 (CAM5.1), from the CLIVAR Climate of the Twentieth Century Plus (C20C+) Project. The observed wetting trend is well reproduced in the simulation driven by all radiative forcings (CAM5-All), but poorly reproduced in the simulation with natural forcings only (CAM5-Nat), confirming the important role of human contribution in the observed wetting trend. Moisture budget analysis shows that the observed wetting trend is dominated by the increasing vertical moisture advection term and results from enhanced vertical motion over nearly all of Central Asia. The observed contributions of moisture budget components to the wetting trend are only captured by CAM5-All experiments. The dynamic contribution is determined by the warm advection anomalies in association with a human-induced meridional uneven warm pattern. Human-induced warming increases the specific humidity over all of Central Asia, increasing (decreasing) the precipitation over the climatological ascent (descent) region in eastern (western) Central Asia. |
英文关键词 | Precipitation Climate change Moisture moisture budget Climate models Trends |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000442564700001 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; LAND PRECIPITATION ; NORTHWEST CHINA ; HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE ; ATTRIBUTION ; RAINFALL ; MONSOON ; TEMPERATURE ; MECHANISMS ; RESPONSES |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
来源机构 | 中国科学院大气物理研究所 ; 南京信息工程大学 |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/210773 |
作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, State Key Lab Numer Modeling Atmospher Sci & Geop, Beijing, Peoples R China; 2.China Meteorol Adm, Inst Trop & Marine Meteorol, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China; 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China; 4.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Peng, Dongdong,Zhou, Tianjun,Zhang, Lixia,et al. Human Contribution to the Increasing Summer Precipitation in Central Asia from 1961 to 2013[J]. 中国科学院大气物理研究所, 南京信息工程大学,2018,31(19):8005-8021. |
APA | Peng, Dongdong,Zhou, Tianjun,Zhang, Lixia,&Wu, Bo.(2018).Human Contribution to the Increasing Summer Precipitation in Central Asia from 1961 to 2013.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(19),8005-8021. |
MLA | Peng, Dongdong,et al."Human Contribution to the Increasing Summer Precipitation in Central Asia from 1961 to 2013".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.19(2018):8005-8021. |
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