Arid
DOI10.1111/jbi.13413
Climate risk on two vegetation axes-Tropical wet-to-dry and temperate arid-to-moist forests
Williams, John N.1; Rivera, Raul1; Choe, Hyeyeong2; Schwartz, Mark W.2; Thorne, James H.2
通讯作者Williams, John N.
来源期刊JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY
ISSN0305-0270
EISSN1365-2699
出版年2018
卷号45期号:10页码:2361-2374
英文摘要

Aim Assess climatic risk to vegetation types associated with tropical and temperate ecosystems based on exposure analysis, which models future risk as a function of deviation from current climate variable distributions. Location Oaxaca State, Mexico.


Taxon Broadly defined vegetation types used in state- and national-level vegetation classification systems. These types can be grouped into series representing dry-to-wet conditions for tropical and temperate vegetation. Methods We used climate exposure analysis to compare current and future climate parameters for the major vegetation types of Oaxaca. This technique integrates a recent vegetation map with historical climate data (1981-2010) to produce a baseline climate layer that is compared to climate projections made with five different global circulation models for near-future (2015-2039) and end-century (2075-2099) periods using two emissions scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). We classified the frequency distribution of the baseline climate into five exposure classes where the closer values are to mean climate conditions, the lower the exposure. Future exposure was estimated by classifying the vegetation pixels into the same exposure classes, now based on future climate values. Increased exposure risk was assessed based on the fraction of pixels that moved into higher exposure classes from one period to another.


Results and main conclusions Our analysis showed four general trends: (a) the higher, current track emissions scenario produced much larger end-century climate exposure; (b) for the tropical vegetation series, tropical evergreen forests are projected as most exposed by end-century; (c) for the temperate vegetation series the matorral-shrubland and conifer forests are the most impacted; and (d) the five GCMs considered showed some convergence in their end-century climate exposure predictions, with coastal and low-elevation areas of the State projected to experience the greatest exposure, and the interior mountain slopes and central region projected to experience the least exposure and be the most climatically stable.


英文关键词climate change conservation distribution models ecological forecast global circulation models Oaxaca phytogeography radiative forcing tropical forest
类型Article
语种英语
国家Mexico ; USA
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000452234900012
WOS关键词HABITAT FRAGMENTATION ; IMPACTS ; MODELS ; RANGE ; VULNERABILITY ; UNCERTAINTY ; ECOSYSTEM ; SHIFTS ; OAXACA ; PLANTS
WOS类目Ecology ; Geography, Physical
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Physical Geography
来源机构University of California, Davis
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/210705
作者单位1.Inst Politecn Nacl, CIIDIR Unidad Oaxaca, Xoxocotlan, Oaxaca, Mexico;
2.Univ Calif Davis, Dept Environm Sci & Policy, Davis, CA 95616 USA
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Williams, John N.,Rivera, Raul,Choe, Hyeyeong,et al. Climate risk on two vegetation axes-Tropical wet-to-dry and temperate arid-to-moist forests[J]. University of California, Davis,2018,45(10):2361-2374.
APA Williams, John N.,Rivera, Raul,Choe, Hyeyeong,Schwartz, Mark W.,&Thorne, James H..(2018).Climate risk on two vegetation axes-Tropical wet-to-dry and temperate arid-to-moist forests.JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY,45(10),2361-2374.
MLA Williams, John N.,et al."Climate risk on two vegetation axes-Tropical wet-to-dry and temperate arid-to-moist forests".JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY 45.10(2018):2361-2374.
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