Arid
DOI10.1002/joc.5714
High-resolution projection of climate change and extremity over Israel using COSMO-CLM
Hochman, Assaf1,2,3; Mercogliano, Paola4,5; Alpert, Pinhas1; Saaroni, Hadas3; Bucchignani, Edoardo4,5
Corresponding AuthorHochman, Assaf
JournalINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN0899-8418
EISSN1097-0088
Year Published2018
Volume38Issue:14Pages:5095-5106
Abstract in English

High-resolution climate projections over Israel (about 8 km) have been obtained with the regional model COSMO-CLM, nested into the CORDEX-MENA simulations at 25 km resolution. This simulation provides high-resolution spatial variability of total precipitation and precipitation intensity. Projections are presented not only in terms of average properties, but also using a subset of extreme temperature and precipitation indices from the standard Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) for the period 2041-2070 with respect to 1981-2010 (RCP4.5).


A general increase in seasonal mean temperature is projected throughout the domain with peaks of similar to 2.5 degrees C, especially in winter and autumn. Extreme temperature indices show increases, larger in the minimum than in the maximum temperatures. Regarding total seasonal precipitation, decreases were found in the north and central Mediterranean climate parts of Israel, with reductions reaching similar to 40%, and increases of the same percentage in the most southern arid parts during winter and spring. An increase in precipitation intensity is shown mostly for the southern arid part of the region, with some indications of extremity also in the north. This spatial pattern probably results from a decrease in cyclones’ occurrences, which mainly influences the northern and central parts of Israel, and an increase in convective activity in the south.


The outcome of this study can serve as a basis for priority setting and policy formulation towards better climate adaptation.


Keyword in EnglishCOSMO-CLM downscaling eastern Mediterranean ETCCDI extreme precipitation extreme temperature Israel RCM
SubtypeArticle
Language英语
CountryIsrael ; Italy
Indexed BySCI-E
WOS IDWOS:000452430000004
WOS KeywordNORTH-AFRICA DOMAIN ; PRECIPITATION EVENTS ; MIDDLE-EAST ; SIMULATIONS ; TEMPERATURE ; RAINFALL ; MOISTURE ; TRENDS
WOS SubjectMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS Research AreaMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/210165
Affiliation1.Tel Aviv Univ, Sch Geosci, Dept Geosci, IL-69978 Tel Aviv, Israel;
2.Tel Aviv Univ, Porter Sch Environm Studies, Sch Geosci, Tel Aviv, Israel;
3.Tel Aviv Univ, Dept Geog & Human Environm, Sch Geosci, Tel Aviv, Israel;
4.CMCC Euromediterranean Ctr Climate Change, Capua, Italy;
5.CIRA Centro Italiano Ric Aerospaziali, Capua, Italy
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Hochman, Assaf,Mercogliano, Paola,Alpert, Pinhas,et al. High-resolution projection of climate change and extremity over Israel using COSMO-CLM[J],2018,38(14):5095-5106.
APA Hochman, Assaf,Mercogliano, Paola,Alpert, Pinhas,Saaroni, Hadas,&Bucchignani, Edoardo.(2018).High-resolution projection of climate change and extremity over Israel using COSMO-CLM.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,38(14),5095-5106.
MLA Hochman, Assaf,et al."High-resolution projection of climate change and extremity over Israel using COSMO-CLM".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 38.14(2018):5095-5106.
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