Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.1002/joc.5206 |
Attribution of temperature changes in Western China | |
Wang, Yujie1,2; Sun, Ying2,3; Hu, Ting2; Qin, Dahe4; Song, Lianchun2 | |
通讯作者 | Sun, Ying |
来源期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
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ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 38期号:2页码:742-750 |
英文摘要 | Western China (WC) is located in the arid and semi-arid belt of the mid-latitudes. Understanding the causes of the large temperature increases experienced in this region is of great importance because both the fragile ecological environment and the human societies in WC are highly vulnerable to changes in climate. We conducted a detection and attribution analysis on the annual mean temperature using an optimal fingerprinting method by comparing observations based on homogenized station data with simulations conducted using the models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The results show that the increase in the mean temperature can be attributed to human activities. The effect of anthropogenic (ANT) forcing can be detected in single-signal detection analyses when the response to the ANT forcing is compared directly with the observations. This effect can also be separated from the influence of the natural external forcing in two-signal analyses. The warming attributable to the ANT forcing explains most of the observed regional warming. The models appear to have underestimated the observed warming, suggesting that the projected future temperature increases based on raw output from the model simulations may have also been underestimated. |
英文关键词 | detection and attribution mean temperature changes Western China |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000423816900016 |
WOS关键词 | NEAR-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; URBANIZATION ; EASTERN ; CMIP5 |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
来源机构 | 南京大学 |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/210150 |
作者单位 | 1.Nanjing Univ, Sch Atmospher Sci, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 2.China Meteorol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, Lab Climate Studies, 46 Zhongguancun Nandajie, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China; 3.Joint Ctr Global Change Studies, Beijing, Peoples R China; 4.China Meteorol Adm, Beijing, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wang, Yujie,Sun, Ying,Hu, Ting,et al. Attribution of temperature changes in Western China[J]. 南京大学,2018,38(2):742-750. |
APA | Wang, Yujie,Sun, Ying,Hu, Ting,Qin, Dahe,&Song, Lianchun.(2018).Attribution of temperature changes in Western China.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,38(2),742-750. |
MLA | Wang, Yujie,et al."Attribution of temperature changes in Western China".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 38.2(2018):742-750. |
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