Arid
DOI10.1002/joc.5206
Attribution of temperature changes in Western China
Wang, Yujie1,2; Sun, Ying2,3; Hu, Ting2; Qin, Dahe4; Song, Lianchun2
通讯作者Sun, Ying
来源期刊INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN0899-8418
EISSN1097-0088
出版年2018
卷号38期号:2页码:742-750
英文摘要

Western China (WC) is located in the arid and semi-arid belt of the mid-latitudes. Understanding the causes of the large temperature increases experienced in this region is of great importance because both the fragile ecological environment and the human societies in WC are highly vulnerable to changes in climate. We conducted a detection and attribution analysis on the annual mean temperature using an optimal fingerprinting method by comparing observations based on homogenized station data with simulations conducted using the models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The results show that the increase in the mean temperature can be attributed to human activities. The effect of anthropogenic (ANT) forcing can be detected in single-signal detection analyses when the response to the ANT forcing is compared directly with the observations. This effect can also be separated from the influence of the natural external forcing in two-signal analyses. The warming attributable to the ANT forcing explains most of the observed regional warming. The models appear to have underestimated the observed warming, suggesting that the projected future temperature increases based on raw output from the model simulations may have also been underestimated.


英文关键词detection and attribution mean temperature changes Western China
类型Article
语种英语
国家Peoples R China
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000423816900016
WOS关键词NEAR-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; URBANIZATION ; EASTERN ; CMIP5
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
来源机构南京大学
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/210150
作者单位1.Nanjing Univ, Sch Atmospher Sci, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;
2.China Meteorol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, Lab Climate Studies, 46 Zhongguancun Nandajie, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China;
3.Joint Ctr Global Change Studies, Beijing, Peoples R China;
4.China Meteorol Adm, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Wang, Yujie,Sun, Ying,Hu, Ting,et al. Attribution of temperature changes in Western China[J]. 南京大学,2018,38(2):742-750.
APA Wang, Yujie,Sun, Ying,Hu, Ting,Qin, Dahe,&Song, Lianchun.(2018).Attribution of temperature changes in Western China.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,38(2),742-750.
MLA Wang, Yujie,et al."Attribution of temperature changes in Western China".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 38.2(2018):742-750.
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