Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.2166/nh.2017.227 |
Impact of GCM structure uncertainty on hydrological processes in an arid area of China | |
Fang, Gonghuan1,3,4,5; Yang, Jing1,2; Chen, Yaning1![]() | |
通讯作者 | Yang, Jing |
来源期刊 | HYDROLOGY RESEARCH
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ISSN | 0029-1277 |
EISSN | 2224-7955 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 49期号:3页码:893-907 |
英文摘要 | Quantifying the uncertainty sources in assessment of climate change impacts on hydrological processes is helpful for local water management decision-making. This paper investigated the impact of the general circulation model (GCM) structural uncertainty on hydrological processes in the Kaidu River Basin. Outputs of 21 GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), representing future climate change under uncertainty, were first bias-corrected using four precipitation and three temperature methods and then used to force a well-calibrated hydrological model (the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) in the study area. Results show that the precipitation will increase by 3.1%-18% and 7.0%-22.5%, the temperature will increase by 2.0 degrees C-3.3 degrees C and 4.2 degrees C-5.5 degrees C and the streamflow will change by -26% to 3.4% and -38% to -7% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Timing of snowmelt will shift forward by approximately 1-2 months for both scenarios. Compared to RCPs and bias correction methods, GCM structural uncertainty contributes most to streamflow uncertainty based on the standard deviation method (55.3%) while it is dominant based on the analysis of variance approach (94.1%). |
英文关键词 | climate change GCM structural uncertainty hydrological modelling uncertainty decomposition |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China ; New Zealand ; Belgium |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000452409900020 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS ; TARIM RIVER-BASIN ; WATER-RESOURCES ; BIAS CORRECTION ; RUNOFF PROJECTIONS ; SWAT MODEL ; SCENARIOS ; PRECIPITATION ; TEMPERATURE ; CATCHMENT |
WOS类目 | Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Water Resources |
来源机构 | 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/209941 |
作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Desert & Oasis Ecol, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, Xinjiang 830011, Peoples R China; 2.Natl Inst Water & Atmospher Res, Christchurch 8011, New Zealand; 3.Univ Ghent, Dept Geog, B-9000 Ghent, Belgium; 4.Sinobelgian Joint Lab Geoinformat, Urumqi 830011, Peoples R China; 5.Sinobelgian Joint Lab Geoinformat, B-9000 Ghent, Belgium |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Fang, Gonghuan,Yang, Jing,Chen, Yaning,et al. Impact of GCM structure uncertainty on hydrological processes in an arid area of China[J]. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,2018,49(3):893-907. |
APA | Fang, Gonghuan,Yang, Jing,Chen, Yaning,Li, Zhi,&De Maeyer, Philippe.(2018).Impact of GCM structure uncertainty on hydrological processes in an arid area of China.HYDROLOGY RESEARCH,49(3),893-907. |
MLA | Fang, Gonghuan,et al."Impact of GCM structure uncertainty on hydrological processes in an arid area of China".HYDROLOGY RESEARCH 49.3(2018):893-907. |
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