Arid
DOI10.2166/nh.2017.227
Impact of GCM structure uncertainty on hydrological processes in an arid area of China
Fang, Gonghuan1,3,4,5; Yang, Jing1,2; Chen, Yaning1; Li, Zhi1; De Maeyer, Philippe3,4,5
通讯作者Yang, Jing
来源期刊HYDROLOGY RESEARCH
ISSN0029-1277
EISSN2224-7955
出版年2018
卷号49期号:3页码:893-907
英文摘要

Quantifying the uncertainty sources in assessment of climate change impacts on hydrological processes is helpful for local water management decision-making. This paper investigated the impact of the general circulation model (GCM) structural uncertainty on hydrological processes in the Kaidu River Basin. Outputs of 21 GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), representing future climate change under uncertainty, were first bias-corrected using four precipitation and three temperature methods and then used to force a well-calibrated hydrological model (the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) in the study area. Results show that the precipitation will increase by 3.1%-18% and 7.0%-22.5%, the temperature will increase by 2.0 degrees C-3.3 degrees C and 4.2 degrees C-5.5 degrees C and the streamflow will change by -26% to 3.4% and -38% to -7% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Timing of snowmelt will shift forward by approximately 1-2 months for both scenarios. Compared to RCPs and bias correction methods, GCM structural uncertainty contributes most to streamflow uncertainty based on the standard deviation method (55.3%) while it is dominant based on the analysis of variance approach (94.1%).


英文关键词climate change GCM structural uncertainty hydrological modelling uncertainty decomposition
类型Article
语种英语
国家Peoples R China ; New Zealand ; Belgium
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000452409900020
WOS关键词CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS ; TARIM RIVER-BASIN ; WATER-RESOURCES ; BIAS CORRECTION ; RUNOFF PROJECTIONS ; SWAT MODEL ; SCENARIOS ; PRECIPITATION ; TEMPERATURE ; CATCHMENT
WOS类目Water Resources
WOS研究方向Water Resources
来源机构中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/209941
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Desert & Oasis Ecol, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, Xinjiang 830011, Peoples R China;
2.Natl Inst Water & Atmospher Res, Christchurch 8011, New Zealand;
3.Univ Ghent, Dept Geog, B-9000 Ghent, Belgium;
4.Sinobelgian Joint Lab Geoinformat, Urumqi 830011, Peoples R China;
5.Sinobelgian Joint Lab Geoinformat, B-9000 Ghent, Belgium
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Fang, Gonghuan,Yang, Jing,Chen, Yaning,et al. Impact of GCM structure uncertainty on hydrological processes in an arid area of China[J]. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,2018,49(3):893-907.
APA Fang, Gonghuan,Yang, Jing,Chen, Yaning,Li, Zhi,&De Maeyer, Philippe.(2018).Impact of GCM structure uncertainty on hydrological processes in an arid area of China.HYDROLOGY RESEARCH,49(3),893-907.
MLA Fang, Gonghuan,et al."Impact of GCM structure uncertainty on hydrological processes in an arid area of China".HYDROLOGY RESEARCH 49.3(2018):893-907.
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