Arid
DOI10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.09.009
Forecasting water budget deficits and groundwater depletion in the main fossil aquifer systems in North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula
Mazzoni, Annamaria1,2,4; Heggy, Essem2,3; Scabbia, Giovanni1,2
通讯作者Heggy, Essem
来源期刊GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS
ISSN0959-3780
EISSN1872-9495
出版年2018
卷号53页码:157-173
英文摘要

We develop a water budget model that quantifies and forecasts water deficits and groundwater depletion of the main exploitable fresh fossil aquifer systems in North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula under different climatic and socio-economic scenarios from 2016 until 2050. Our results suggest that in the upcoming few decades, under the most plausible climatic and socio-economic scenario (SSP2-AVG), within North Africa, only Egypt and Libya will experience severe water deficits with respectively similar to 45% and similar to 90% of their current water budget in 2050. For the Arabian Peninsula, all countries will undergo water deficits, ranging from similar to 20% for Saudi Arabia to almost double the supply for Yemen (similar to 190%). Under these alarming deficits, resulting from severe anthropogenic discharges, the majority of the small to mid-size exploitable fossil aquifer systems in the Arabian Peninsula could reach full depletion by 2050 and the total depletion of groundwater resources in all aquifer systems could be reached in similar to 60-90 years. Over the same time span, North African fossil aquifers will lose 1-15% of their exploitable fresh water volume and may reach total depletion in similar to 200-350 years with the projected increased extraction rates. We find that the major cause of the water budget deficit and groundwater depletion in the MENA area are anthropogenic drivers rather than climatic ones. Finally, we conclude that if current hydrologic, climatic and socio-economic trends continue, the nations with the lowest gross domestic product per capita, like Egypt, Yemen and Libya, will undergo the highest water deficit per capita, leading to a significant rise in food prices, potentially resulting in more socio-economic instabilities over the next three decades.


英文关键词Arid environments Water deficit Groundwater budget Climate change Water and food security Projections
类型Article
语种英语
国家Qatar ; USA ; Italy
收录类别SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号WOS:000455061900014
WOS关键词CLIMATE-CHANGE ; MIDDLE-EAST ; GRACE ; VARIABILITY ; RESOURCES ; STORAGE ; AVAILABILITY ; UNCERTAINTY ; COUNTRIES ; BALANCE
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Geography
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geography
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/209776
作者单位1.Qatar Fdn, Qatar Environm & Energy Res Inst, Doha 34110, Qatar;
2.Univ Southern Calif, Viterbi Sch Engn, 3737 Watt Way,Powell Hall Engn,Off 502, Los Angeles, CA 90089 USA;
3.CALTECH, Jet Prop Lab, 4800 Oak Grove Dr, Pasadena, CA 91109 USA;
4.Univ Turin, Dept Econ & Stat Cognetti de Martiis, Lungo Dora Siena 100-A, I-10153 Turin, Italy
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Mazzoni, Annamaria,Heggy, Essem,Scabbia, Giovanni. Forecasting water budget deficits and groundwater depletion in the main fossil aquifer systems in North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula[J],2018,53:157-173.
APA Mazzoni, Annamaria,Heggy, Essem,&Scabbia, Giovanni.(2018).Forecasting water budget deficits and groundwater depletion in the main fossil aquifer systems in North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula.GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,53,157-173.
MLA Mazzoni, Annamaria,et al."Forecasting water budget deficits and groundwater depletion in the main fossil aquifer systems in North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula".GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS 53(2018):157-173.
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