Arid
DOI10.1007/s11356-018-2884-3
Assessing the impact of climate variability on maize using simulation modeling under semi-arid environment of Punjab, Pakistan
Ahmed, Ishfaq1; Rahman, Muhammad Habib Ur2; Ahmed, Shakeel3; Hussain, Jamshad1; Ullah, Asmat4; Judge, Jasmeet5
通讯作者Ahmed, Ishfaq
来源期刊ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH
ISSN0944-1344
EISSN1614-7499
出版年2018
卷号25期号:28页码:28413-28430
英文摘要

Climate change and variability are major threats to crop productivity. Crop models are being used worldwide for decision support system for crop management under changing climatic scenarios. Two-year field experiments were conducted at the Water Management Research Center (WMRC), University of Agriculture Faisalabad, Pakistan, to evaluate the application of CERES-Maize model for climate variability assessment under semi-arid environment. Experimental treatments included four sowing dates (27 January, 16 February, 8 March, and 28 March) with three maize hybrids (Pioneer-1543, Mosanto-DK6103, Syngenta-NK8711), adopted at farmer fields in the region. Model was calibrated with each hybrid independently using data of best sowing date (27 January) during the year 2015 and then evaluated with the data of 2016 and remaining sowing dates. Performance of model was evaluated by statistical indices. Model showed reliable information with phenological stages. Model predicted days to anthesis and maturity with lower RMSE (<2days) during both years. Model prediction for biological yield and grain yield were reasonably good with RMSE values of 963 and 451kgha(-1), respectively. Model was further used to assess climate variability. Historical climate data (1980-2016) were used as input to simulate the yield for each year. Results showed that days to anthesis and maturity were negatively correlated with increase in temperature and coefficient of regression ranged from 0.63 to 0.85, while its values were 0.76 to 0.89kgha(-1) for grain yield and biological yield, respectively. Sowing of maize hybrids (Pioneer-1543 and Mosanto-DK6103) can be recommended for the sowing on 17 January to 6 February at the farmer field for general cultivation in the region. Early sowing before 17 January should be avoided due to severe reduction in grain yield of all hybrids. A good calibrated CERES-Maize model can be used in decision-making for different management practices and assessment of climate variability in the region.


英文关键词CERES-Maize Sowing date Crop phenology Grain yield Climate variability
类型Article
语种英语
国家Pakistan ; USA
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000445215500064
WOS关键词CROPPING SYSTEM ; HIGH-TEMPERATURE ; YIELD ; HEAT ; UNCERTAINTY ; PHENOLOGY ; EXTREMES ; STRESS ; GROWTH ; CROPS
WOS类目Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/209157
作者单位1.Univ Agr Faisalabad, Dept Agron, Agroclimatol Lab, Faisalabad, Pakistan;
2.MNS Univ Agr, Dept Agron, Multan, Pakistan;
3.BZU, Dept Agron, Multan, Pakistan;
4.Agron Res Stn, Karor Layyah, Punjab, Pakistan;
5.Univ Florida, Ctr Remote Sensing, Agr & Biol Engn Dept, Gainesville, FL USA
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Ahmed, Ishfaq,Rahman, Muhammad Habib Ur,Ahmed, Shakeel,et al. Assessing the impact of climate variability on maize using simulation modeling under semi-arid environment of Punjab, Pakistan[J],2018,25(28):28413-28430.
APA Ahmed, Ishfaq,Rahman, Muhammad Habib Ur,Ahmed, Shakeel,Hussain, Jamshad,Ullah, Asmat,&Judge, Jasmeet.(2018).Assessing the impact of climate variability on maize using simulation modeling under semi-arid environment of Punjab, Pakistan.ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH,25(28),28413-28430.
MLA Ahmed, Ishfaq,et al."Assessing the impact of climate variability on maize using simulation modeling under semi-arid environment of Punjab, Pakistan".ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH 25.28(2018):28413-28430.
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