Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.03.027 |
Assessing improvements in models used to operationally predict wildland fire rate of spread | |
Cruz, Miguel G.1; Alexander, Martin E.2; Sullivan, Andrew L.1; Gould, James S.1; Kilinc, Musa3 | |
通讯作者 | Cruz, Miguel G. |
来源期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE
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ISSN | 1364-8152 |
EISSN | 1873-6726 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 105页码:54-63 |
英文摘要 | The prediction of fire propagation across landscapes is necessary for safe and effective fire management. We analyzed the predictive accuracy of models currently used operationally in Australia for predicting fire spread rates in five different fuel types (grasslands, temperate and semi-arid shrublands, dry eucalypt and conifer forests) compared to their previous counterparts. We calculated error statistics and contrasted model predictions against observed spread rates of field observations of wildfires and prescribed fires. We then compared the changes in error metrics of older models to newer ones. Evaluation results show newer models to have improved prediction accuracy. Mean absolute errors were reduced by 56%, 68% and 70% in dry eucalypt forests, grasslands and crown fires in conifer forests, respectively. The most significant improvement was the reversion of under-prediction bias achieved with newer models. This study has highlighted the value of continuous improvement when it comes to developing operational wildland fire spread models. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
英文关键词 | Crown fire Fire behaviour Fire propagation Fire weather Fuel type Model error |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Australia ; Canada |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000434465900005 |
WOS关键词 | BEHAVIOR PREDICTION ; WILDFIRE ; SURFACE ; FOREST ; FUELS ; DANGER ; SYSTEM ; II. |
WOS类目 | Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications ; Engineering, Environmental ; Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Computer Science ; Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/209048 |
作者单位 | 1.CSIRO, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia; 2.Wild Rose Fire Behav, 180-50434,Range Rd 232, Leduc Cty, AB T4X 1L0, Canada; 3.Country Fire Author, Fire & Emergency Management, POB 701, Mt Waverley, Vic 3149, Australia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Cruz, Miguel G.,Alexander, Martin E.,Sullivan, Andrew L.,et al. Assessing improvements in models used to operationally predict wildland fire rate of spread[J],2018,105:54-63. |
APA | Cruz, Miguel G.,Alexander, Martin E.,Sullivan, Andrew L.,Gould, James S.,&Kilinc, Musa.(2018).Assessing improvements in models used to operationally predict wildland fire rate of spread.ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE,105,54-63. |
MLA | Cruz, Miguel G.,et al."Assessing improvements in models used to operationally predict wildland fire rate of spread".ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE 105(2018):54-63. |
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