Arid
DOI10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.03.027
Assessing improvements in models used to operationally predict wildland fire rate of spread
Cruz, Miguel G.1; Alexander, Martin E.2; Sullivan, Andrew L.1; Gould, James S.1; Kilinc, Musa3
通讯作者Cruz, Miguel G.
来源期刊ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE
ISSN1364-8152
EISSN1873-6726
出版年2018
卷号105页码:54-63
英文摘要

The prediction of fire propagation across landscapes is necessary for safe and effective fire management. We analyzed the predictive accuracy of models currently used operationally in Australia for predicting fire spread rates in five different fuel types (grasslands, temperate and semi-arid shrublands, dry eucalypt and conifer forests) compared to their previous counterparts. We calculated error statistics and contrasted model predictions against observed spread rates of field observations of wildfires and prescribed fires. We then compared the changes in error metrics of older models to newer ones. Evaluation results show newer models to have improved prediction accuracy. Mean absolute errors were reduced by 56%, 68% and 70% in dry eucalypt forests, grasslands and crown fires in conifer forests, respectively. The most significant improvement was the reversion of under-prediction bias achieved with newer models. This study has highlighted the value of continuous improvement when it comes to developing operational wildland fire spread models. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.


英文关键词Crown fire Fire behaviour Fire propagation Fire weather Fuel type Model error
类型Article
语种英语
国家Australia ; Canada
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000434465900005
WOS关键词BEHAVIOR PREDICTION ; WILDFIRE ; SURFACE ; FOREST ; FUELS ; DANGER ; SYSTEM ; II.
WOS类目Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications ; Engineering, Environmental ; Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向Computer Science ; Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/209048
作者单位1.CSIRO, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia;
2.Wild Rose Fire Behav, 180-50434,Range Rd 232, Leduc Cty, AB T4X 1L0, Canada;
3.Country Fire Author, Fire & Emergency Management, POB 701, Mt Waverley, Vic 3149, Australia
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Cruz, Miguel G.,Alexander, Martin E.,Sullivan, Andrew L.,et al. Assessing improvements in models used to operationally predict wildland fire rate of spread[J],2018,105:54-63.
APA Cruz, Miguel G.,Alexander, Martin E.,Sullivan, Andrew L.,Gould, James S.,&Kilinc, Musa.(2018).Assessing improvements in models used to operationally predict wildland fire rate of spread.ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE,105,54-63.
MLA Cruz, Miguel G.,et al."Assessing improvements in models used to operationally predict wildland fire rate of spread".ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE 105(2018):54-63.
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