Arid
DOI10.1016/j.envint.2018.05.014
Escalating heat-stress mortality risk due to global warming in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)
Ahmadalipour, Ali; Moradkhani, Hamid
通讯作者Ahmadalipour, Ali
来源期刊ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL
ISSN0160-4120
EISSN1873-6750
出版年2018
卷号117页码:215-225
英文摘要

Climate change will substantially exacerbate extreme temperature and heatwaves. The impacts will be more intense across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), a region mostly characterized by hot and arid climate, already intolerable for human beings in many parts. In this study, daily climate data from 17 fine-resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are acquired to calculate wet-bulb temperature and investigate the mortality risk for people aged over 65 years caused by excessive heat stress across the MENA region. Spatially adaptive temperature thresholds are implemented for quantifying the mortality risk, and the analysis is conducted for the historical period of 1951-2005 and two future scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 during the 2006-2100 period. Results show that the mortality risk will increase in distant future to 8-20 times higher than that of the historical period if no climate change mitigation is implemented. The coastal regions of the Red sea, Persian Gulf, and Mediterranean Sea indicate substantial increase in mortality risk. Nonetheless, the risk ratio will be limited to 3-7 times if global warming is limited to 2 degrees C. Climate change planning and adaptation is imperative for mitigating heat-related mortality risk across the region.


英文关键词Climate change Mortality Middle East and North Africa (MENA) CORDEX RCM Wet-bulb temperature
类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000436573400025
WOS关键词2 DEGREES-C ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; ANTHROPOGENIC INFLUENCE ; SUMMER TEMPERATURES ; FUTURE TEMPERATURE ; RELATIVE-HUMIDITY ; IMPACT ; PRECIPITATION ; MODEL ; UNCERTAINTY
WOS类目Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/208949
作者单位Univ Alabama, Ctr Complex Hydrosyst Res, Dept Civil Construct & Environm Engn, Tuscaloosa, AL 35487 USA
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Ahmadalipour, Ali,Moradkhani, Hamid. Escalating heat-stress mortality risk due to global warming in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)[J],2018,117:215-225.
APA Ahmadalipour, Ali,&Moradkhani, Hamid.(2018).Escalating heat-stress mortality risk due to global warming in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA).ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL,117,215-225.
MLA Ahmadalipour, Ali,et al."Escalating heat-stress mortality risk due to global warming in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)".ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 117(2018):215-225.
条目包含的文件
条目无相关文件。
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Ahmadalipour, Ali]的文章
[Moradkhani, Hamid]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Ahmadalipour, Ali]的文章
[Moradkhani, Hamid]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Ahmadalipour, Ali]的文章
[Moradkhani, Hamid]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。