Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.1016/j.envint.2018.05.014 |
Escalating heat-stress mortality risk due to global warming in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) | |
Ahmadalipour, Ali; Moradkhani, Hamid | |
通讯作者 | Ahmadalipour, Ali |
来源期刊 | ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL
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ISSN | 0160-4120 |
EISSN | 1873-6750 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 117页码:215-225 |
英文摘要 | Climate change will substantially exacerbate extreme temperature and heatwaves. The impacts will be more intense across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), a region mostly characterized by hot and arid climate, already intolerable for human beings in many parts. In this study, daily climate data from 17 fine-resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are acquired to calculate wet-bulb temperature and investigate the mortality risk for people aged over 65 years caused by excessive heat stress across the MENA region. Spatially adaptive temperature thresholds are implemented for quantifying the mortality risk, and the analysis is conducted for the historical period of 1951-2005 and two future scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 during the 2006-2100 period. Results show that the mortality risk will increase in distant future to 8-20 times higher than that of the historical period if no climate change mitigation is implemented. The coastal regions of the Red sea, Persian Gulf, and Mediterranean Sea indicate substantial increase in mortality risk. Nonetheless, the risk ratio will be limited to 3-7 times if global warming is limited to 2 degrees C. Climate change planning and adaptation is imperative for mitigating heat-related mortality risk across the region. |
英文关键词 | Climate change Mortality Middle East and North Africa (MENA) CORDEX RCM Wet-bulb temperature |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000436573400025 |
WOS关键词 | 2 DEGREES-C ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; ANTHROPOGENIC INFLUENCE ; SUMMER TEMPERATURES ; FUTURE TEMPERATURE ; RELATIVE-HUMIDITY ; IMPACT ; PRECIPITATION ; MODEL ; UNCERTAINTY |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/208949 |
作者单位 | Univ Alabama, Ctr Complex Hydrosyst Res, Dept Civil Construct & Environm Engn, Tuscaloosa, AL 35487 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ahmadalipour, Ali,Moradkhani, Hamid. Escalating heat-stress mortality risk due to global warming in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)[J],2018,117:215-225. |
APA | Ahmadalipour, Ali,&Moradkhani, Hamid.(2018).Escalating heat-stress mortality risk due to global warming in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA).ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL,117,215-225. |
MLA | Ahmadalipour, Ali,et al."Escalating heat-stress mortality risk due to global warming in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)".ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 117(2018):215-225. |
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