Arid
DOI10.1029/2018EF000873
Projected Heat Stress Under 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C Global Warming Scenarios Creates Unprecedented Discomfort for Humans in West Africa
Sylla, Mouhamadou Bamba1; Faye, Aissatou1,2,3; Giorgi, Filippo2; Diedhiou, Arona4; Kunstmann, Harald5
通讯作者Sylla, Mouhamadou Bamba
来源期刊EARTHS FUTURE
ISSN2328-4277
出版年2018
卷号6期号:7页码:1029-1044
英文摘要

Heat and discomfort indices are applied to the multimodel ensemble mean of COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment-Africa regional climate model projections to investigate future changes in heat stress and the proportion of human population at risk under 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C global warming scenarios over West Africa. The results show that heat stress of category Extreme Caution is projected to extend spatially (up to 25%) over most of the Gulf of Guinea, Sahel, and Sahara desert areas, with different regional coverage during the various seasons. Similarly, the projected seasonal proportion of human population at discomfort substantially increases to more than 50% over most of the region. In particular, in June-August over the Sahel and the western Sahara desert, new areas (15% of West Africa) where most of the population is at risk emerge. This indicates that from 50% to almost everyone over most of the Sahel countries and part of the western Sahara desert is at risk of possible heat cramp, heat exhaustion, and heat stroke in future climate scenarios. These conditions become more frequent and are accompanied by the emergence of days with dangerous heat stress category during which everyone feels discomfort and is vulnerable to a likely heat cramp and heat exhaustion. In general, all the above features are more extended and more frequent in the 2 degrees C than in the 1.5 degrees C scenario. Protective measures are thus required for outdoor workers, occupational settings in hot environments, and people engaged in strenuous activities.


英文关键词projected heat stress human discomfort global warming scenarios Paris Agreement
类型Article
语种英语
国家Burkina Faso ; Italy ; Nigeria ; France ; Germany
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000441239300008
WOS关键词CLIMATE-CHANGE ; FUTURE TEMPERATURE ; THERMAL COMFORT ; DEGREES-C ; WAVES ; MORTALITY ; IMPACTS ; INDEX ; HOT ; ENSEMBLE
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
来源机构French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/208650
作者单位1.West African Sci Serv Ctr Climate Change & Adapte, Competence Ctr, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso;
2.Abdus Salaam Int Ctr Theoret Phys, Earth Syst Phys Sect, Trieste, Italy;
3.Fed Univ Technol Akure, Grad Res Program West African Climate Syst, West African Sci Serv Ctr Climate Change & Adapte, Akure, Akure, Nigeria;
4.Univ Grenoble Alpes, IRD, CNRS, Grenoble INP,IGE, Grenoble, France;
5.Karlsruhe Inst Technol, Inst Meteorol & Climate Res, Dept Atmospher Environm Res IMK IFU, Garmisch Partenkirchen, Germany
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Sylla, Mouhamadou Bamba,Faye, Aissatou,Giorgi, Filippo,et al. Projected Heat Stress Under 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C Global Warming Scenarios Creates Unprecedented Discomfort for Humans in West Africa[J]. French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development,2018,6(7):1029-1044.
APA Sylla, Mouhamadou Bamba,Faye, Aissatou,Giorgi, Filippo,Diedhiou, Arona,&Kunstmann, Harald.(2018).Projected Heat Stress Under 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C Global Warming Scenarios Creates Unprecedented Discomfort for Humans in West Africa.EARTHS FUTURE,6(7),1029-1044.
MLA Sylla, Mouhamadou Bamba,et al."Projected Heat Stress Under 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C Global Warming Scenarios Creates Unprecedented Discomfort for Humans in West Africa".EARTHS FUTURE 6.7(2018):1029-1044.
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