Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.5194/esd-9-153-2018 |
Reliability ensemble averaging of 21st century projections of terrestrial net primary productivity reduces global and regional uncertainties | |
Exbrayat, Jean-Francois1,2; Bloom, A. Anthony3; Falloon, Pete4; Ito, Akihiko5; Smallman, T. Luke1,2; Williams, Mathew1,2 | |
通讯作者 | Exbrayat, Jean-Francois |
来源期刊 | EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 2190-4979 |
EISSN | 2190-4987 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 9期号:1页码:153-165 |
英文摘要 | Multi-model averaging techniques provide opportunities to extract additional information from large ensembles of simulations. In particular, present-day model skill can be used to evaluate their potential performance in future climate simulations. Multi-model averaging methods have been used extensively in climate and hydrological sciences, but they have not been used to constrain projected plant productivity responses to climate change, which is a major uncertainty in Earth system modelling. Here, we use three global observationally orientated estimates of current net primary productivity (NPP) to perform a reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method using 30 global simulations of the 21st century change in NPP based on the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) "business as usual" emissions scenario. We find that the three REA methods support an increase in global NPP by the end of the 21st century (2095-2099) compared to 2001-2005, which is 2-3% stronger than the ensemble ISIMIP mean value of 24.2 PgCy(-1). Using REA also leads to a 45-68% reduction in the global uncertainty of 21st century NPP projection, which strengthens confidence in the resilience of the CO2 fertilization effect to climate change. This reduction in uncertainty is especially clear for boreal ecosystems although it may be an artefact due to the lack of representation of nutrient limitations on NPP in most models. Conversely, the large uncertainty that remains on the sign of the response of NPP in semi-arid regions points to the need for better observations and model development in these regions. |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Scotland ; USA ; England ; Japan |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000425792300002 |
WOS关键词 | EARTH SYSTEM MODEL ; LAND-USE CHANGE ; CARBON-DIOXIDE ; INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT ; MICROBIAL DECOMPOSITION ; NUTRIENT LIMITATION ; SEMIARID ECOSYSTEMS ; FOREST PRODUCTIVITY ; CO2 FERTILIZATION ; DATA ASSIMILATION |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/208640 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Edinburgh, Sch GeoSci, Edinburgh EH9 3FF, Midlothian, Scotland; 2.Univ Edinburgh, Natl Ctr Earth Observat, Edinburgh EH9 3FF, Midlothian, Scotland; 3.CALTECH, Jet Prop Lab, Pasadena, CA USA; 4.Hadley Ctr, Met Off, Fitzroy Rd, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England; 5.Natl Inst Environm Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Exbrayat, Jean-Francois,Bloom, A. Anthony,Falloon, Pete,et al. Reliability ensemble averaging of 21st century projections of terrestrial net primary productivity reduces global and regional uncertainties[J],2018,9(1):153-165. |
APA | Exbrayat, Jean-Francois,Bloom, A. Anthony,Falloon, Pete,Ito, Akihiko,Smallman, T. Luke,&Williams, Mathew.(2018).Reliability ensemble averaging of 21st century projections of terrestrial net primary productivity reduces global and regional uncertainties.EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS,9(1),153-165. |
MLA | Exbrayat, Jean-Francois,et al."Reliability ensemble averaging of 21st century projections of terrestrial net primary productivity reduces global and regional uncertainties".EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS 9.1(2018):153-165. |
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