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Capsule: Grazing by livestock can have complex effects on drivers of population change in the Clamorous Reed Warbler Acrocephalus stentoreus and Dead Sea Sparrow Passer moabiticus.Aims: To investigate the effect on two specialist bird species on wetland degradation in the Jordan Valley.Methods: The direct and indirect effects of grazing on the probability of occurrences of two specialist bird species, Clamorous Reed Warbler A. stentoreus and Dead Sea Sparrow P. moabiticus, were analysed during the breeding season at the patch scale, using path analysis.Results:Tamarix shrub density was a strong predictor for the presence of both species. Grazing had a negative total effect on both; a significant indirect effect on Dead Sea Sparrow via its impact on the mean height of shrubs, and a significant, negative indirect effect on Clamorous Reed Warbler by reducing reed cover. Intensive grazing and browsing by livestock including goats, sheep and camels, apparently had a negative effect on the overall density of native Tamarix shrubs, while promoting encroachment by invasive Prosopis juliflora.Conclusion: This may be part of a long-term cascade leading to an ecological transition and loss of important wetland habitats in the arid Jordan Valley.