干旱区生态环境知识资源中心

The analysis of land use/land cover (LULC) change has always been a topic of interest in land dynamics research. The majority of previous studies used the conventional method of "net change" analysis to show spatiotemporal LULC transitions. However, such analysis failed to indicate whether the transition is clearly systematic or due to an apparently random process. Hence, this study aimed to identify the most prominent signals of landscape transitions over the last three decades, using the landscapes of East African Rift Valley Region. We used Remote Sensing and GIS to quantify and map the changes in LULC for 1986 and 2016, and then the two maps compared to produce transition matrices. Results show that net change and swap change accounted for 43% and 57% of total change on the landscape respectively. Accordingly, 6% of scattered acacia woodland and 5% of bush land have been converted to agricultural land, whereas 7% and 3% of scattered acacia woodland have been degraded towards grazing land and bush land respectively. These changes were found to be clearly systematic and hence indicate the dominant and prominent signals of landscape transformation. Hence, future land use policies need to consider such prominent signals of LULC change in order to plan an integrated approach to safeguard the fragile ecosystems of the region, while searching for alternative livelihood options.