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The onset of xylogenesis plays an important role in tree growth and carbon sequestration, and it is thus a key variable in modelling the responses of forest ecosystems to climate change. Temperature regulates the resumption of cambial activity, but little is known about the effect of water availability on the onset of xylogenesis in cold but semi-arid regions.

The onset of xylogenesis during 2009-2014 was monitored by weekly microcoring Juniperus przewalskii trees at upper and lower treelines on the north-eastern Tibetan Plateau. A logistic regression was used to calculate the probability of xylogenic activity at a given temperature and a two-dimensional reverse Gaussian model to fit the differences between the observed and estimated days of xylogenesis onset at given temperatures and precipitation within a certain time window.

The thermal thresholds at the beginning of the growing season were highly variable, suggesting that temperature was not the only factor initiating xylem growth under cold and dry climatic conditions. The onset of xylogenesis was well predicted for climatic thresholds characterized by a cumulative precipitation of 17.0 +/- 5.6 mm and an average minimum temperature of 1.5 +/- 1.4 A degrees C for a period of 12 d.

Xylogenesis in semi-arid regions with dry winters and springs can start when both critical temperature and precipitation thresholds are reached. Such findings contribute to our knowledge of the environmental drivers of growth resumption that previously had been investigated largely in cold regions without water shortages during early growing seasons. Models of the onset of xylogenesis should include water availability to improve predictions of xylem phenology in dry areas. A mismatch between the thresholds of temperature and moisture for the onset of xylogenesis may increase forest vulnerability in semi-arid areas under forecasted warmer and drier conditions.