Arid
DOI10.1016/j.agwat.2018.03.004
Adaptation strategies of agriculture and water management to climate Change in the Upper Tarim River basin, NW China
Huang, Shaochun1,2; Wortmann, Michel1; Duethmann, Doris3,4; Menz, Christoph1; Shi, Fengzhi5; Zhao, Chengyi5; Su, Buda6; Krysanova, Valentina1
通讯作者Huang, Shaochun
来源期刊AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT
ISSN0378-3774
EISSN1873-2283
出版年2018
卷号203页码:207-224
英文摘要

The Upper Tarim River basin, contributing about 85% of the total inflow to the mainstream Tarim River, is heavily influenced by climate change and human interferences. This study is the first integrated assessment of agriculture and water management under climate change scenarios for this arid river basin in Central Asia. It aims to analyze changes in river discharge of the Upper Tarim under 28 climate projections for 3 representative concentration pathways (RCP) and the A1B scenario and 30 combinations of changes in land use (agricultural area) and water saving measures considered as adaptation strategies. Headwater discharge simulations of two hydrological models (SWIM-G and WASA) are used to drive a hydrological model of the lowland area (SWIM oasis), taking account irrigation and river transmission losses. The projections show that the river discharge of the Upper Tarim River is likely to increase in a warmer climate if the agricultural area is reduced to the level as in 1998 even without any water saving measures. If the agricultural area increases to the 2010 level, strong water saving measures must be applied to ensure sufficient water inflow to the mainstream Tarim under all climate scenarios. If agricultural area continues to expand, there is a risk of decreasing river discharge at the end of this century under the RCP2.6 scenario. The uncertainty of the projections is large, especially in the far future, and it is mainly related to the climate and hydrological models.


英文关键词Climate change Adaptation Agricultural water saving measures Tarim SWIM WASA
类型Article
语种英语
国家Germany ; Norway ; Austria ; Peoples R China
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000434889800022
WOS关键词BIAS CORRECTION ; IMPACT ; MODEL ; IRRIGATION ; AKSU ; PRECIPITATION ; VARIABILITY ; RESOURCES ; SCENARIOS ; DISCHARGE
WOS类目Agronomy ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向Agriculture ; Water Resources
来源机构中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/207376
作者单位1.Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, Potsdam, Germany;
2.Norwegian Water Resources & Energy Directorate NV, POB 5091, N-0301 Oslo, Norway;
3.GFZ German Res Ctr GeoSci, Helmholtz Ctr Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany;
4.Vienna Univ Technol, Vienna, Austria;
5.Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, State Key Lab Oasis Desert & Ecol, Urumqi 830011, Peoples R China;
6.Chinese Meteorol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Huang, Shaochun,Wortmann, Michel,Duethmann, Doris,et al. Adaptation strategies of agriculture and water management to climate Change in the Upper Tarim River basin, NW China[J]. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,2018,203:207-224.
APA Huang, Shaochun.,Wortmann, Michel.,Duethmann, Doris.,Menz, Christoph.,Shi, Fengzhi.,...&Krysanova, Valentina.(2018).Adaptation strategies of agriculture and water management to climate Change in the Upper Tarim River basin, NW China.AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT,203,207-224.
MLA Huang, Shaochun,et al."Adaptation strategies of agriculture and water management to climate Change in the Upper Tarim River basin, NW China".AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT 203(2018):207-224.
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