干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 近30a来天山西部积雪与气候变化--以天山积雪雪崩研究站为例

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	近30a来天山西部积雪与气候变化--以天山积雪雪崩研究站为例
其他题名	Climate Changes and Seasonal Snow Cover Variability in the Western Tianshan Mountains, Xinjiang in 1967-2000
	高卫东 1; 魏文寿 2; 张丽旭 3
来源期刊	冰川冻土
ISSN	1000-0240
出版年	2005
卷号	27 期号:1 页码:68-73
中文摘要	利用位于天山西部的中国科学院天山积雪与雪崩研究站1967-2000年近33 a来的观测记录, 检验了天山西部中山带季节性积雪、冬季降水、冬季平均气温的变化趋势. 结果表明: 季节性积雪的长期变化呈增加趋势, 近33 a来年平均增加1.43%; 冬季气温和降水的变化趋势也是增加的, 其中冬季降水每年平均增加0.12%, 而冬季气温近30 a来升高了0.8 ℃. 对气温时间序列的一次线性倾向估计的倾向值为0.02, 气温变化表现出稳定的升温趋势, 最大熵谱分析表明气温的变化存在2.1 a、 3.6 a、 10.7 a的变化周期. 对多年气温季节的变化研究表明, 升温的季节主要是冬季, 而夏季升温不明显;最大熵谱分析表明降水变化存在2.1 a、 6.4 a、 10.7 a的周期变化, 降水量的变化没有表现出很强的趋势性特点;逐年最大积雪深度在波动中成逐年增加的趋势, 积雪日数和最大积雪深度之间密切相关, 33 a来的积雪日数是增加的. 通过对相关因子和影响因子分析表明, 季节性积雪与冬季气温之间存在着弱的负相关关系, 与冬季降水呈显著的正相关关系.
英文摘要	Snow cover is an important component in a climatic system, and is very sensitive to the change in climatic environment, especially in arid areas. Seasonal snow cover is the most active fac-tor that affects the environment in arid and cold re-gions. In this paper, the change trends of seasonal snow cover, precipitation and temperature in cold season in the intermediate zone of the West Tians-han Mountains are tested by using average disper-sion method, least square method and auto-regres-sion-moving average method based on the data of annual maximum snow cover depth, monthly mean temperature and precipitation observed in the Tian-shan Station for Snow and Avalanche Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences in 1967-2000. The results show that snow cover depth in the interme-diate zone of the West Tianshan Mountains increa-ses in the last 33 years. The temperature and pre-cipitation variations in the cold season in the intermediate zone of the West Tianshan Mountains are also in an increasing trend. During the last 33 years, the seasonal snow cover and precipitation in cold season have annually increased by 1. 43% and 0. 12%, respectively, and the temperature in cold season has increased by 0. 8 "C. Verifying the time series of precipitation and air temperature shows a positive valuei that is to say, the precipitation and air temperature are increasing. However, the tem-perature change is more than the precipitation change. By using Mann-Kendall technique, it is found that temperature change is, but precipitation is not abrupt during this period. The correlative and regressive analyses show that there is a signifi-cant positive correlation between the seasonal snow cover and the precipitation in cold season, but a weak negative correlation between the seasonal snow cover and the temperature in cold season.
中文关键词	季节性积雪 ; 气候变化 ; 相关分析 ; 天山 ; 新疆
英文关键词	seasonal snow cover climate change correlative analysis Tianshan Mt. Xinjiang
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
CSCD记录号	CSCD:1874691
来源机构	中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 ; 中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/205914
作者单位	1.中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所, 乌鲁木齐, 新疆 830011, 中国; 2.中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所, 乌鲁木齐, 新疆 830002, 中国; 3.国家海洋局东海监测中心, 上海 200137, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	高卫东,魏文寿,张丽旭. 近30a来天山西部积雪与气候变化--以天山积雪雪崩研究站为例[J]. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所, 中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,2005,27(1):68-73.
APA	高卫东,魏文寿,&张丽旭.(2005).近30a来天山西部积雪与气候变化--以天山积雪雪崩研究站为例.冰川冻土,27(1),68-73.
MLA	高卫东,et al."近30a来天山西部积雪与气候变化--以天山积雪雪崩研究站为例".冰川冻土 27.1(2005):68-73.