干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 科尔沁沙地及其周围地区土地利用变化的情景分析

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	科尔沁沙地及其周围地区土地利用变化的情景分析
其他题名	Scenario analysis of land use change in Horqin Desert and its surrounding area
	张永民; 赵士洞
来源期刊	自然资源学报
ISSN	1000-3037
出版年	2004
卷号	19 期号:1 页码:29-37
中文摘要	根据科尔沁沙地及其周围地区过去15年(1985～2000年)土地利用的时空动态变化、2000年的土地利用格局以及2010年的土地利用规划数据,构建了模拟研究地区土地利用变化的CLUE-S模型.在该模型的支持下,论文分别对研究地区未来10年(2000～2010年)土地利用变化格局的马尔柯夫情景和规划情景进行了模拟,然后,通过2000年土地利用现状图与2010年情景模拟图的叠加,分析了在以上两种情景下土地利用变化的共同之处及差异.研究结果对完善科尔沁沙地及其周围地区土地利用变化的动态管理具有重要意义.
英文摘要	Horqin desert and its surrounding area(41°17’-45°24’ N, 116°21’-123°30’ E), located in the eastern part of agro-pasture transitional zone in northern China,is an area sensitive to environmental change due to transitional location and the high potential for sandy desert -ification.During the past decades.the rapid expansion of sandy desertification in this area has greatly accelerated the processes of environmental change,leading to deterioration of the eco-environmental conditions in northern China.Land-use and land-cover change is the center of the interests of the science of global environmental change,and thus has aroused increasing attention of scientists worldwide. Based on the understanding to land use dynamics between 1985 and 2000,land use patterns in 2000,and land use planning data for 2010,a model,CLUE -S,was implemented for modeling land use change in the Horqin Desert and its surrounding area.With the help of this CLUE-S model,two scenarios of land use change,one was based on Markov process and the other on land use planning of the govemment,were explored for the period from 2000 to 2010.Then,major land use changes were identified for each scenario by overlaying each simulated land use map of 2010 with land use map of 2000.Some of the implications of each scenario were analyzed and presented in this paper.The main conclusions of the study are drawn as follows. Common land use changes in the period between 2000 and 2010 according to the two scenarios will take place along the line which starts from the central part of Jarud Banner turning southwestwards,through Ar Horqin Banner,Bairin Left Banner.Bairin Right Banner,Linxi county till the eastern part of Hexigten Banner,then turning southwards through the western part of Chifeng city and ending in the western part of Harqin Banner.The main types of potential land use change include the conversion from grassland to forestland.from cultivated land to forestland and from cultivated land to grassland. Apart from these results that are similar to both scenarios, each scenario also has its own characteristics on land use change from 2000 to 2010. According to the Markov scenario,conversion from grassland to cultivated land will occur along the line from the southern part of Bairin Right Banner turning southwards through the eastern part of Chifeng city and Harqin Banner till the eastern part of Ningcheng county .This indi-cates that if land use change from 1985 to 2000 can be viewed as a Markov process and the changing trend will continue in the following 10 years,it is mostly likely that some grassland on both sides of the above line will be cultivated.In addition,the same conversion will also occur in some local areas in the central and eastern parts of the study area.Furthermore,the cultivation of grassland may be a potential disturbance to local environment and great attention should be taken to by government. According to the scenario representing planned changes,three major land use changesrfrom unsed land to forestland,frorn cultivated land to forestland and from unused land to grassland, will take place in central and eastern parts of the study area.This shows that it will be necessary to plant trees or grass in some seriously degraded areas of Horqin Desert to complete the planned task of land use.It is difficult to implement this engineering project of re vegetation from the view point of ecology.The study suggests that the land-use planning from 1997 to 2010 should be discussed again due to lack of ecological considerations.
中文关键词	科尔沁沙地 ; 土地利用变化 ; CLUE-S模型 ; 情景分析
英文关键词	horqin desert land use change CLUE-S model scenario analysis
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS POLICY
WOS研究方向	Agriculture
CSCD记录号	CSCD:1569596
来源机构	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/205870
作者单位	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京 100101, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	张永民,赵士洞. 科尔沁沙地及其周围地区土地利用变化的情景分析[J]. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,2004,19(1):29-37.
APA	张永民,&赵士洞.(2004).科尔沁沙地及其周围地区土地利用变化的情景分析.自然资源学报,19(1),29-37.
MLA	张永民,et al."科尔沁沙地及其周围地区土地利用变化的情景分析".自然资源学报 19.1(2004):29-37.