干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Local Modeling模式及其在月径流预测中的应用

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	Local Modeling模式及其在月径流预测中的应用
其他题名	Local Modeling Method and Its Application in Monthly Runoff Prediction in the Northwest Arid Inland Region
	蓝永超; 丁永建; 王书功; 康尔泗; 宋克超
来源期刊	中国沙漠
ISSN	1000-694X
出版年	2004
卷号	24 期号:3 页码:313-316
中文摘要	Local Modeling方法是一种动力系统预测方法,将其应用于河西内陆区黑河干流出山口莺落峡水文站月平均流量的中长期预测预报,取得了较为理想的成果.预测试验的结果表明,该预测模型有较高计算精度,尤其适用于非主汛期各月的月平均流量的预测;对于主汛期6～9月的月平均流量的预测,在考虑前期来水与预见期内降水的影响后,亦可获到较为理想的预测结果.可以认为,该方法的预报精度达到了水文情报预报规范的要求,Local Modeling方法的应用,将为西北干旱地区河川径流的中长期预报提供了一个新的途径.
英文摘要	The occurrence and development of hydrology phenomena are the result of many factors interac-ting together and among them climate is a main influencing factor. On condition that precipitation and air temperature data in the mountain area of the northwestern China were seldom recorded, the runoff status at the mountain outlet could reflect the changes of climate environment in the mountain area. The basic idea of Local Modeling method is that rivers are regarded as multi-dimensional nonlinear dynamical system con-trolled by hydrology, climate and physical geography etc, in which runoff is the relatively important factor. It was considered in model that the future status of the system consist in the historical data, from the histor-ical data the spots most similar to the current status of the system can be found. That is, the model finds the most adjacent spots to the current status vector in status vector spaces determined by historical data in time sequence; then using the obtained distances and the next status of adjacent spots to estimate the future sta-tus of the system. Proved by application in the forecast for the monthly runoff of Heihe river the method possesses a good forecast precision, especially is applicable for the runoff forecast in non-main flood seasons. As for the runoff forecast in main flood seasons, a satisfying forecast precision still can be obtained in prem-ise of considering the influence of precipitation in the forecast period and runoff in last month. So it can be thought that the forecasting precise based on Local Modeling method has met the demands of Standard for Hydrological Information and Hydrological Forecasting announced by the National Water Conservancy Minis-try, and the method will provide a new path for river runoff forecast of the arid region in northwest China.
中文关键词	动力系统 ; Local Modeling方法 ; 西北干旱内陆区 ; 径流预报
英文关键词	dynamical system Local Modeling Method the arid inland region in northwestern China runoff forecast
类型	Article
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	Geology
WOS研究方向	Geology
CSCD记录号	CSCD:1598604
来源机构	中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/205743
作者单位	蓝永超, 中国科学院,寒区旱区环境与工程研究所, 兰州, 甘肃 730000, 中国.; 丁永建, 中国科学院,寒区旱区环境与工程研究所, 兰州, 甘肃 730000, 中国.; 王书功, 中国科学院,寒区旱区环境与工程研究所, 兰州, 甘肃 730000, 中国.; 康尔泗, 中国科学院,寒区旱区环境与工程研究所, 兰州, 甘肃 730000, 中国.; 宋克超, 中国科学院,寒区旱区环境与工程研究所, 兰州, 甘肃 730000, 中国.
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	蓝永超,丁永建,王书功,等. Local Modeling模式及其在月径流预测中的应用[J]. 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,2004,24(3):313-316.
APA	蓝永超,丁永建,王书功,康尔泗,&宋克超.(2004).Local Modeling模式及其在月径流预测中的应用.中国沙漠,24(3),313-316.
MLA	蓝永超,et al."Local Modeling模式及其在月径流预测中的应用".中国沙漠 24.3(2004):313-316.