Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
| 长江三角洲近900年来气候变化对洪水事件的影响 | |
| 其他题名 | Potential control of climatic changeson flood events in the Yangtze Deltaduring 1100-2002 |
| […] | |
| 来源期刊 | Journal of Geographical Sciences
 |
| ISSN | 1009-637X |
| 出版年 | 2004 |
| 卷号 | 14期号:1页码:70-80 |
| 英文摘要 | Wide collection on the historic records of the climatic changes and flood events is performed in the Yangtze Delta. Man-Kendall (MK) method is applied to explore the changing trends of the time series of the flood discharge and the maximum high summer temperature. The research results indicate that the flood magnitudes increased during the transition from the medieval warm interval into the early Little Ice Age. Fluctuating climate changes of the Little Ice Age characterized by arid climate events followed by the humid and cold climate conditions give rise to the frequent flood hazards. Low-lying terrain made the study region prone to the flood hazards, storm tide and typhoon. MK analysis reveals that the jumping point of the time series of the flood discharge changes occurred in the mid-1960s, that of the maximum summer temperature changes in the mid-1990s, and the exact jump point in 1993. The flood discharge changes are on negative trend before the 1990s,they are on positive tendency after the 1990s; the maximum high summer temperature changes are on negative trend before the 1990s and on positive tendency after the 1990s. These results indicate that the trend of flood discharge matches that of the maximum high summer temperature in the Yangtze Delta. The occurrence probability of the maximum high summer temperature will be increasing under the climatic warming scenario and which will in turn increase the occurrence probability of the flood events. More active solar action epochs and the higher sea surface temperature index (SST index) of the south Pacific Ocean area lying between 4°N-4°S and 150°W-90°W correspond to increased annual precipitation, flood discharge and occurrence frequency of floods in the Yangtze Delta. This is partly because the intensified solar activities and the higher SST index give rise to accelerated hydrological circulation from ocean surface to the continent, resulting in increased precipitation on the continent. |
| 英文关键词 | Yangtze Delta historical and instrumental climate changes Mann-Kendall method climate control on flood events |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 国家 | 中国 |
| 收录类别 | CSCD |
| WOS类目 | GEOSCIENCES MULTIDISCIPLINARY |
| WOS研究方向 | Geology |
| CSCD记录号 | CSCD:1842108 |
| 资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/204770 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | […]. 长江三角洲近900年来气候变化对洪水事件的影响[J],2004,14(1):70-80. |
| APA | […].(2004).长江三角洲近900年来气候变化对洪水事件的影响.Journal of Geographical Sciences,14(1),70-80. |
| MLA | […]."长江三角洲近900年来气候变化对洪水事件的影响".Journal of Geographical Sciences 14.1(2004):70-80. |
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